PL Tournament Predictions

The conference tournament is coming up this weekend, and I don't know about you, but I've never been more excited to spend a weekend in a horse barn outside of DC. In this year's tournament, it seems like anyone could upset anyone.

Consider:
-Navy knocked off a strong Lafayette team IN PENNSYLVANIA, the same team that split a season series with Lehigh. Lehigh has a two game losing streak going into Saturday, while the Mids have their only winning streak of the season going and a coach who is leaving as soon as they lose.
-AU was LOSING at the half to Army one week ago in West Point.
-Holy Cross and Bucknell seem to be as even matched as can be: two young teams who have lost games they probably shouldn't have, and split the season series.
-Colgate and Lafayette both have senior leadership going into the tournament. They also split their season series.

In sum, anyone could win any of these first round games. It probably isn't as likely that we'll see an upset in the service academy games, but it's certainly possible. Moreover, once we hit the second round, the #1 and #2 seeds are anything but safe. Lehigh has lost to Holy Cross and Lehigh this year, and the Eagles have lost to Lafayette and eeked out two last minute victories against the Red Raiders this year. Conceivably, Holy Cross and Colgate could be in the finals, and we could have a home game for the #5 seed.

Despite all that insanity, I'll make my picks. If anyone wants to disagree, feel free, these things are far from certain.

Lehigh vs. Navy
I'd be dumb to pick Navy here, especially since Lehigh is the more talented and experienced team. They'll get over their recent losing streak and win one that oughta be easy. If Rowland finds his shot, all is well for the Mountain Hawks.

Holy Cross v. Bucknell
The guys at Holy Cross know how to win at the Show Place, and I think they'll manifest it here. Bucknell has been in a slide lately, and the tough defense that the Saders have shown in the last few games will be to their advantage. I think they'll win, but only if Lufkin can score 12+ points in the paint, where he will have to battle a tough but young BU front line.

Colgate v. Lafayette
These guys seem to have been fighting it out for 3rd place in the league the last few years. I'm taking Colgate, only because Lafayette has sucked so much lately, and because Linebaugh is the best clutch player in the league. I expect him to do very well here.

AU v. Army
AU ought to win this one, especially since Army has to travel the farthest to get to the Show Place. But don't expect it to be a total blowout: the Eagles are just coming off of finals, and as Andres Rodriguez displayed in the Bucknell away game, he may not be at his best when he's just finished academic pursuits (he took the LSAT just before the BU game).

That gives us.....

Lehigh v. Holy Cross
This is a total tossup. Either of these teams could win. I'll say HC wins, but only if they limit Rowland to under 12.

AU v. Colgate
C'mon you know what I'm going to say here. I'm biased. I think Colgate's perimeter offense can't handle Ingram, Rodriguez, or Lekavicius, so I'll say AU by 10.

Which results in....

HC at AU
A third straight HC/AU tournament final. This is actually the outcome I personally fear most. If HC beats AU AGAIN, I'm not sure I would ever watch another basketball game. For my own personal mental health, let's say AU wins in a laugher and FINALLY makes it to the tournament.

I've been unbiased all season long mostly, so now I am biased. I think AU has as good a shot at winning this thing as anyone. Let me know what you think.

And if you're going to be at the tournament, drop me a line, or just say hi when you see me in the stands. I'm not hard to find, I'll be the curly haired young guy in the AU tshirt.  @ 9:08 PM