Thursday, December 09, 2004
TIME TO GET A LITTLE BIT NERDY
Those who can, do. Those who can't, analyze.
That's pretty much how it works in sports writing. Guys like me can't hit a jumper, but we can use a word processor. Some of us can even use a calculator. This is my first attempt at the latter.
I'll let you in on a secret: I'm actually a baseball fan, not a basketball fan. I could give two snaps about what the Nets or Warriors do, but I can name the starting rotation for most MLB teams. In baseball, there is a very well publicized movement to use statistical analysis in determining the value of individual players and teams. There are also a few pioneers out there trying to do the same thing with basketball.
The above is a chart listing some stats for all the teams in the league thus far (it does not include AU's victory over Towson yesterday). All of these should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're not very far into the season, and numbers are going to change as we go along.
The key numbers for us are possesions, possessions per game, and points per possession (despite my misspelling them). This uses a formula from Ken Pomeroy to determine what a "possession" is. I won't get too into it here, but you can probably figure out for yourself what a possession means.
The idea is that you can determine how well a team is doing at scoring points based on how many they score per possession, more so than you can with points per game. A quick team might score a lot of points, but they also might create a tempo that allows their opponents to score a lot of points too. If you limit your possessions, you also limit the opponents. The real goal of basketball is not to score a certain number of points. The goal is to get more possessions, and score more during those possessions than your opponent. You can win 36-30 or 114-98, a win is still a win.
Some thoughts on what the numbers show us:
-Is Navy is playing hurry-up basketball? This is a team that struggled to score points last year. They have the most possessions per game so far, with 79 opportunities a game to put the ball in the bucket. That number will probably drop as they stop playing DIII teams, but it's impressive right now. Also notice that they score the least often in the PL, with only .88 points per possession.
-Army, the other team that couldn't buy a jumpshot for much of last year, seems to be doing the right thing-- slowing down the game with few possessions per game, and scoring when they have the opportunity. They average fourth in the league with points per possession. Too bad it hasn't translated into wins. We'll see if they can keep it up with better competition.
-Bucknell seems to be keeping things slow as well, a testiment to the abilities of Chris McNaughton in the post. Bucknell is a young and athletic team that was mostly guard centered last year, but the development of McNaughton as a legitimate offensive threat allows them to play a half court game.
-Lehigh, Lafayette, and Holy Cross have very low totals in points/possession. AU has a very high one.
Who knows what that this stuff means this early on, but it's fun to think about. I have a couple of ideas on how to weigh this stuff based on who teams are playing, but that will have to wait for another day. If anyone has any comments on this sort of thing, let me know. It's a work in progress, as is statistical basketball analysis in general. Also, if anyone can get me stats from these games in a format that is easier than me just typing them into excel, I'll write the school of your choice a check with my compliments. @ 2:23 PM
Those who can, do. Those who can't, analyze.
That's pretty much how it works in sports writing. Guys like me can't hit a jumper, but we can use a word processor. Some of us can even use a calculator. This is my first attempt at the latter.
I'll let you in on a secret: I'm actually a baseball fan, not a basketball fan. I could give two snaps about what the Nets or Warriors do, but I can name the starting rotation for most MLB teams. In baseball, there is a very well publicized movement to use statistical analysis in determining the value of individual players and teams. There are also a few pioneers out there trying to do the same thing with basketball.
The above is a chart listing some stats for all the teams in the league thus far (it does not include AU's victory over Towson yesterday). All of these should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're not very far into the season, and numbers are going to change as we go along.
The key numbers for us are possesions, possessions per game, and points per possession (despite my misspelling them). This uses a formula from Ken Pomeroy to determine what a "possession" is. I won't get too into it here, but you can probably figure out for yourself what a possession means.
The idea is that you can determine how well a team is doing at scoring points based on how many they score per possession, more so than you can with points per game. A quick team might score a lot of points, but they also might create a tempo that allows their opponents to score a lot of points too. If you limit your possessions, you also limit the opponents. The real goal of basketball is not to score a certain number of points. The goal is to get more possessions, and score more during those possessions than your opponent. You can win 36-30 or 114-98, a win is still a win.
Some thoughts on what the numbers show us:
-Is Navy is playing hurry-up basketball? This is a team that struggled to score points last year. They have the most possessions per game so far, with 79 opportunities a game to put the ball in the bucket. That number will probably drop as they stop playing DIII teams, but it's impressive right now. Also notice that they score the least often in the PL, with only .88 points per possession.
-Army, the other team that couldn't buy a jumpshot for much of last year, seems to be doing the right thing-- slowing down the game with few possessions per game, and scoring when they have the opportunity. They average fourth in the league with points per possession. Too bad it hasn't translated into wins. We'll see if they can keep it up with better competition.
-Bucknell seems to be keeping things slow as well, a testiment to the abilities of Chris McNaughton in the post. Bucknell is a young and athletic team that was mostly guard centered last year, but the development of McNaughton as a legitimate offensive threat allows them to play a half court game.
-Lehigh, Lafayette, and Holy Cross have very low totals in points/possession. AU has a very high one.
Who knows what that this stuff means this early on, but it's fun to think about. I have a couple of ideas on how to weigh this stuff based on who teams are playing, but that will have to wait for another day. If anyone has any comments on this sort of thing, let me know. It's a work in progress, as is statistical basketball analysis in general. Also, if anyone can get me stats from these games in a format that is easier than me just typing them into excel, I'll write the school of your choice a check with my compliments. @ 2:23 PM
