KNOW WHEN TO HOLD EM KNOW WHEN TO FOLD EM

There are two things that can happen when you start writing and predciting sports, world events, or yahtzee tournaments:

1) You could be right, and then you can brag about how awesome and smart you are
2) You could be wrong, and then you can make excuses

This post is a little bit of the latter. You may have read my pimping of Bucknell as the best team in league history. Now that's a bold statement-- there have been a few very good squads to play in the league. The reasons I said such a thing were pretty basic: they had the best win in league out of conference play (something that isn't up for debate), they have four remarkably good players, a deep bench, and they were on an 11 game win streak. Seems like a good resume to me.

And I still stick to it: before this weekend, BU probably was as good a basketball team as has existed in the PL 5 games in. They were beating opponents by vicious margins, and looked pretty unstoppable to me. But, as the old, annoying cliche goes, that's why they play the games. It appears BU is not unstoppable, but struggling; not vicious, but withering.

Does this mean they won't be the "best team ever" by seasons' end? Not neccessarily. They could rattle off 11 wins en route to the NCAA tournament and show up with a pretty decent record. But that doesn't seem likely anymore, given

THIS WEEK'S HOLY SHIT MOMENT,

Navy's victory over the Bison. After the Bison's loss at AU, I immediately thought of the 2002-2003 season when a very good Holy Cross team got thumped in Bender Arena in their only loss during a 16-1 PL season. I thought the Bison would bounce back like the Crusaders had with a 63-39 win over 5-0 Lehigh. But apparently Pat Flannery's absence is taking a real toll on BU.

Flannery's disappearance alone, however, cannot account for a loss like this. And the story that is going to get overshadowed here is the emergence of the USNA as a legitimate threat in the Patriot League. Navy didn't luck into this win. They have been a much better team than their record shows, and they're starting to play like it, with a home sweep of Colgate and Bucknell. At this point, I'd rank them higher than Colgate, Lafayette, and Army. They're a team of young guys who, as previously noted here, hustle more than any other team in the league. They are a year or two from being serious contenders in the league, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them get a PL tournament victory this year.

And so, at the halfway point in league play, we are left again with what has been a familiar sight in the last few years for anyone that follows the league: Holy Cross in first place. There are still seven more sets of games to play however, and it seems unlikely that the Saders will win thirteen straight. They aren't the HC of 2002, but they've gelled (is that how you spell it?) offensively, and if they can keep winning the close ones they will be in good shape to host some tournament games come March. They make a long trip to Annapolis and DC next week, and with a sweep of those two games, would be hard to overtake as the #1 seed. But that's why they play the games.

  @ 6:03 PM