WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN: A USEFUL ESOTERIC POST ABOUT NUMBERS

(You can read about previous stat-nerd things here and here--these ideas are mostly stolen from these guys)

“Keeping records enhances the pleasure of the search, and the chance of finding order and meaning in these events.” - Aldo Leopold

While Leopold probably didn't have small time college basketball in mind, his quote is relevant-- when we look at the records and numbers of what's gone on so far in league play, we can take away a few things. But it's going to take some math, so try not to fall asleep first.

We went over points per possession in the previous points about stats. It's a pretty straightforward way of looking at how well a team gets the ball in the bucket every time down the court, much better than points per game. That's the stat below.


That includes possessions per game as well. For instance, AU has an average of 65 possessions per game, and they score a little over a point on every possession they have. Think of it like this: AU, on average scores a 2 field goal every other trip down the court. You can look at the possessions per game stat as a measure of pace for each team.

Holy Cross, surprisingly enough given their poor offensive showings last year and early this year, is the best offensive team in the league 7 games in. They also are one of the slowest, with a full 11 possessions less than Navy, the team that likes to play the fastest game. That is probably more an expression of their defensive side-- HC does a good job of forcing a team to run the clock down, thereby reducing possessions on both ends. Also note that Bucknell does not score a lot of points per possession, at fourth in the league.

Here's the stats for what teams give up on defense. Possessions per game are about the same for a team's offense and defense.



Colgate's defense is the worst in the league, despite their 3rd place standing on the offensive end. Army, Navy, and Lafayette are also pretty lousy. Again, Holy Cross has the best defense, with Bucknell and Lehigh close behind.

So, wrapping up those stats, HC looks really good, with BU and AU just behind. Nothing too amazing there, but it shows that HC deserves the games it's won, and they're not just winning on a fluke. It is somewhat surprising that BU's offense looks so midlevel, while HC's much maligned shooting looks pretty good.



Floor percentage is a measure of how often a team scores on each possession, be it via free throw, three pointer, or field goal. Again, Holy Cross is the best team in this category, scoring on 54% of their trips down the court. Army's offensive woes are pronounced in the fact that they only score every three possessions, much fewer than every other team. Bucknell is second worst, with Lafayette and Lehigh close behind.

Colgate's defense is again exposed for it's many problems, as they have serious difficulty stopping their opponent from scoring. Holy Cross is again the best defense, with Lehigh second best.

So HC is essentially dominating on defense, and better than most teams on offense. Why is that?

Part of the reason is that they're getting 6 more possessions per game in league play.



The above is a chart of how many FG attempts each team gets (and how many their opponent games) per 66.1 possessions, the average in a PL game. This includes free throws as well, but in a weird way that makes sense but i dont want to get into right now. This means that HC and Navy are getting 6 and 4 more shots off, respectively, per game than their opponents.

Say HC is hitting 50% of their shots-- this means they're getting an additional 6 points a game from their control of the tempo. That's a big margin, and it's part of the reason they beat Lehigh last Sunday. AU, on the other hand, is taking two fewer shots a game than their opponents, part of the reason the lost to Lehigh back on January 6.

One last stat-- what I'll call "Statistical Wins". This is the number of games each team should have won, if their offensive and defensive output were consistent, that is, if their number of shots made were the same every game, and their points allowed were the same.



You can see that this system gives HC, LU and AU an additional win, while taking away wins from Army, Navy, and Colgate. Lehigh is the "least lucky" or "most inconsistent" of the teams.

So what does this all mean? A few conclusions can be drawn by looking at a team's stats. Let's use league leader HC as an example:

Teams that are playing Holy Cross cannot allow them to dominate the tempo of the game. HC allows very few possessions for its opponents, and they're good at getting good looks in the few shots that they take. That means they should extend out on defense, guard the passing zones, and look to run as often as possible, speeding up the game to a pace HC is not as comfortable with.

Moreover, teams should consider giving up on the idea of limiting turnovers against the Cross-- they're going to get them one way or another, so you might as well push the ball instead and beat them at their own game.

One more stat. This one's for individuals. It's called approximate value, and it's a way of calculating a player's value, albeit imperfectly. The formula is a little weird, but it works relatively well. Here's what it comes up with thus far for the best players in the league:



This system says that HC has the two best performers thus far. It also says that Raimondas Petrauskas has been AU's MVP early on, while Nick Monserez is the best player for LU, both surprises. Whether this system is valid, I leave up to you. But it works in the NBA pretty well, and by year's end I think it will work even better, with more games and a smaller margin of error.

Well, that's all. Let me know if any of you actually read all this, or if you fell asleep.
  @ 6:47 PM