AN UPDATE FEW WILL CARE ABOUT BUT I'M DESPERATE FOR POSTS
Remember
Doug Wojcik? Remember how he was the #1 candidate for the Navy job last summer? Remember how he stayed at MSU? It seems to have worked out for him.
TIME IS A PONY RIDESo the PL season is now officially over. It was the best season in league history, with two postseason wins, and huge national exposure for Bucknell. We say goodbye to the class of 2005, confident that some of them will find success in Europe as pros, and that others will get boring normal jobs like the rest of us.
Let's take a look at the effects their departures will have on their respective squads.

This is a list of the PL class of 2005. Next to each player is their
Approximate Value, adjusted to match the same data if they played 82 games (i.e. in the NBA). On the far right is the percentage of shots each player took for their team over the 14 games of league play. This metric ignores whether the shot went in and out of conference performance, but it does a good job of letting us know how takes are distributed over a team.
Army and Bucknell only have one Senior per squad, neither of whom was looked to for much offensive output. Chris Niesz was valuable, but only took 5% of his team's shots. I don't think anyone out there could pick Ray Frederick out of a crowd.
All of the other teams, however, have significant holes to fill. AU in particular will need more contributions from its younger players, losing the two seniors rated highest by AV, Jason Thomas and Raimondas Petrauskas. Other notable departures are Andrew Zidar at CU, John Hurley and Nate Lufkin at HC, Sean "Half Court" Knitter at LC, Nick Monserez at Lehigh, and George O'Garro and Taj Mathews at Navy.

This chart is the percentage of shots taken by seniors on each squad. You'll notice one thing straight off: AU has some work to do. Their 5 seniors took 56% of their shots, much more than any other squad in the league. In a way, that's a good thing: you want your most experienced players getting looks to the basket. But it's also a bad thing, because Jeff Jones now has to put those extra looks in the hands of untested guys like Brayden Billbe, Sekou Lewis, Paul Jones from Lithuania, and the incoming freshman class. Sure, Andre Ingram will shoot more, but he can't shoot EVERY time down the floor.
HC, Navy, and Colgate also have to find new hands to put their shots in. Bucknell and Army, on the other hand, have known commodities (albeit with a much different talent level) that they can rely on.

One more stat. This one is the percentage of their team's rebounds each senior had. Ray Fredrick is not included because he didn't get any rebounds. None. You can tell that Zidar did yeoman's work under the hoops, getting 21% of the rebounds his team pulled down. That includes when he's not on the floor. Also notable are Sean Knitter and John Hurley's stats. Knitter in particular is impressive, given his limited minutes.

Now, a listing of what % of their rebounds each team is losing. AU, again, will need a lot more boards from guys like Billbe and their USC transfer (I'm going to keep calling him Paul Jones). HC, Lehigh, and CU will need rebounding contributions from younger players as well.
AU looks to have a lot to overcome if they want to compete next year. Depending on how their freshmen and role players like Billbe and Lewis perform, it's possible. AU has lost guys like Doctor, Miles, Stokes, and Rodriguez, and still remained competitive. But they've never lost a senior class this important. Everyone else should be able to patch up holes. 30% of a team isn't tough to get over. 50% might be.
AND THAT IS THATBlogger is giving me problems, but hopefully you can see this. That's all for tonight's live blog, and I hope whoever read this (whoever you are, I hope there are at least 2 of you) enjoyed it.
AND WE APPROACH THE ENDYour faithful PL blogger has some errands to run, so the faster this ends the better.
St. Joes has 5 field goals on the 2nd half. Keith simmons is 4-5 from the field.
Ugly shot by Lufkin allows St Joes to slow down the tempo of the game. They go up 7 with 2 minutes remaining.
UGH another ugly Torey Thomas shot. Is he 0-8 now? St Joes by 5. RW yelling at Thomas.
1:30 left. Dunk for St. Joes, and that will do it. As the announcers say sometimes... DAGGER!
47 seconds left. HC down 6. That's pretty much the end of the game, as I finish my 5th Jack on Rocks.
Everyone on the St Joes team is an orphan!! With a parapelegic brother!!
40 seconds left, and HC with only a prayer that St Joes will miss a bucket. Great effort by the Cross in the 2nd half, but not so much in the first half. A lot to look forward to for HC fans, who have Clifford and Doherty with a larger role next year.
THINGS ARE LOOKING UGLYHC wouldneed a big turnaround here to get a win.
...and Kevin Hamilton does just that, getting the shot and a free throw after a good turnover. Very impressive. Margin now 5.
Great block by Lufkin, who got beat on the dribble. Roommate Alanna on Lufkin: "He is one ugly dude." She has a poor report on Hurley as well.
St Joes pulling away, up 7, 54-47. Simmons hits a jumper, makes it a 5 point margin. Announcers bring up his coming off the bench again.
BLOGGER: MY MORTAL ENEMYYour PL blogger may have to switch to a different system after this season. Blogger is killing me.
St. Joes is making up for a complete lack of offensive output by getting calls and heading to the line.
Speaking of lines, did anyone else notice that with 2 seconds left John Griffin fouled Wisconsin, to change the score from Wisconsin by 7 to Wisconsin by 9. The spread on the game? 8 points. Someone should investigate.
OK, this would not make the blog if I wasn't 4 drinks in, but my roommate just asked "is that guy's name Blumpkin?" when Lufkin went to the line.
Five points is a huge margin in this game, and it's about to be 8. This game is slow as hell, and a 7-8 point margin is nothing to laugh at.
Sweet tattoo from Jones on St Joes. Detroit what!!
GOOD BYE RUBY TOREY
That may be the worst headline in PL blog history. Torey Thomas just got his 4th foul at the 10 minute mark, and Pat Doherty has come in. The announcers seem to think that Doherty isn't that good, but I believe this to be a good thing for the Saders, as taking chances is essential in games against major conference teams, and Doherty has a lot higher upside.
St Joes doesn't have a field goal in the last 11 minutes, until Carroll hits an improbable 3 with 8:30 to go.
Terrible shot selection from Hamilton. Doherty fouls, and St Joes will go to the line for the rest of the game.
St Joes, with a little run, goes back up 5.
Quick side note: did you know there's a player named JIHAD MUHAMMAD for Cincinnati? I knew a guy named Harris Wiener in college, but Jihad Muhammad seems pretty bad as well.
WE GOT OURSELVES A BALLGAMENate Lufkin throws one away.
Has anyone on St. Joes not suffered through some kind of tragedy?? Everyone has a dead relative.
HC has hit the boards the right way in the 2nd half. Thomas has been giving some great looks. HC down 1.
So, what's it going to be? Will this game go to the final minute, or will the major conference team pull ahead, as Wisconsin did against BU with 8 minutes to go? Hopefully for us, it stays close. HC has hung in there very well, especially with some lousy calls in the first half.
Oh god, the Hawk just had a drink through his neck. He's like that vegetable woman that Congress is so concerned with. Hook the Hawk back up!!!
HC leads points in the paint by 22 points. That's extraordinary, and a tribute to their post guys.
Geez, Hurley just threw away a pass. Can't be doing that with the game this close.
HC: DEFENSE IS WHAT WE DOThe HC defense has really stepped up. Nate Lufkin has stepped up in the post, scoring 4 straight for the cross.
Dumbass foul from Keith Simmons. Makes me pour drink #4.
Sounds like a good contingent for HC at the game. Well done, HC fans!
Torey Thomas, instead of missing a layup, does the right thing and passes off to Hurley for a bucket and one.
Thomas does the right thing again and doesn't take an open three. His job is to pass the ball, not shoot it. Four straight from Hurley, who does well with contact. He missed an early one before, and has hit two tough buckets since.
HC with a chance to take the lead here. St Joes fans have been silenced.
TOREY THOMAS: STOP SHOOTING!TT just missed ANOTHER layup. Someone stop him before he kills again.
HC cuts the lead to 6, as we get another mention of Bucknell's lack of pep band.
What is it about Greg Kinsey that makes me think he's shady? The sideburns maybe? I like him as a player, but I feel like I wouldnt like him in real life.
OK, the whole BU pep band debacle is making the league look bad. They should pay for a band.
We get a quick shot of the HC fan section, and I try to figure out which posters from the HC board are which. Guess I shouldn't assume anything, but I'd like to know who that was behind the announce booth. :-*
So the National Guard has changed its motto from "FREE MONEY COME N GET IT" to "DEFEND AMERICA". Tough sell.
APPLEBEES: A MAJOR CORPORATION THAT CARES ABOUT YOUR LOCAL FOOTBALL TEAMThe stupid Hawk is still flapping its wings. If I was an opposing mascot, I would tackle that annoying crap.
OTHER EXCITING NIT MATCHUPS: Maryland - Davidson! Who cares!
Here is something that may get me in trouble: I love, respect, and worship at the alter of one Robert Montgomery Knight. It's like I'm a chinese national who believes the true government exists in Taiwan. The current Indiana regime is not who I recognize, rather, they're in Texas.
ESPN is showing the "dunks of the year". Sekou Lewis is not involved for some reason. To be honest, the macho attitude of the dunk bothers me somewhat. Maybe it's just the philosophy major in me, but it seems that the violent attitude that comes with the dunk is not a valuable addition to the sport. Dunking on someone is all about showing that you are tougher than them, and to be honest, I'm not sure that's an attribute that we particularly need to encourage in the world. But then again, a lot of those dunks looked pretty cool.
While we're at halftime, congratulations to Kyle at the
Mid Majority for attending 100 games this year. I believe him to be a madman, but he's a madman who can write his ass off. A quick prediction: the great authors of the future will not write newspaper columns or books, but will be bloggers. The medium is just so flexible, so convienent, and so without borders that it's bound to happen. We bloggers haven't found our Dave Barry yet, but pretty soon the good authors are going to be working for themselves on the internet, instead of giving a cut of their profit to some publishing house or newspaper magnate.
Cute chick in a HC hat behind the announcers. That may be the 3 drinks talking, though.
Start of half #2. Announcers talking shit about Kevin Hamilton. Quick 2 from StJ.
ARGH more blogger problems.
GODDAMNITI just lost an entire post, thanks to Blogger's crappy servers. Serves me right for not copying it before I submitted it. Oh well.
The gist was that a) Torey Thomas SHOULDNT SHOOT, and SHOULD PASS. Torey is a great passer, and a terrible shooter. Torey, please, more Abe Badmus, and less Joe Knight. b) my whiskey is starting to get a little watered down from the ice. I should drink faster, I guess. c) No one from St. Joes this year will make the NBA, despite whatever stupid comments the ESPN2 announcers make.
News on Mike Davis at the half! Fire the sumbitch.
St. Joes will not continue to shoot like they have. That, at least, will make HC fans feel better.
Questionable foul against St. Joes. Stuff like that is tough to call, but you hope to get it right more often than not.
The announcers are discussing RW and his...
Keith Simmons just missed a dunk. Keith, baby, take a lesson from Jason Thomas and knock it off. Kinsey saves him with a 3.
Anyway, the announcers just discussed the Willard reign at Pitt. They say he wasn't "comfortable" there. I would be SHOCKED if Willard was to leave his alma mater at this point. In fact, I would think that RW is the least likely PL coach to leave his post in the next 10 years. Crews might get canned, the coaches at Lehigh and Navy have one foot out the door if they keep doing well, and Jones could peace out at any time.
23-33 St Joes at this point.
Torey Thomas hits a layup, a big one with ~30 seconds left. HC is still in this one.
Drink #3 on the way. Ice melting quickly.
JOHN BRYANT: REAL AMERICAN HEROESPN2 just played a nice little sequence of John Bryant getting hurt, with patriotic, uplifting music in the background. Mom, apple pie, and John Bryant. And I'm proud to be an American...
HC is rebounding well again, with Simmons leading the way. Too many 3 pointers, though.
Drink #2 being poured. 9:04 left.
A CLEAR shot clock violation just occured, but the refs simply ignored it. It should be Holy Cross ball out of bounds, but SJ gets credit for the layup-- terrible and biased refereeing.
27-14 St Joes, and an offensive foul on Lufkin. He doesn't like the call. Paint a crappy picture about it, Lufkin!
St ShmoesWhen they are getting looks, St Joes is knocking them down.
Defensive lapse for HC results in a dunk. 21-12 St Joes.
Keith Simmons is really good. There must be a way to get him 30+ minutes next year. It's the PL for God's sake, he can play the 3 or even 4.
Do you ever watch TV and wonder "who the hell is in charge of advertising out there?" I'm not sure whether America is just dumb, or advertisers just think we are. I mean, am I really supposed to believe that I can get fresh fruit from WENDY'S? As if there is some Wendy's employee out at the farmers market buying fruit every morning.
15-4 SJ, 14:57 to playRalph Willard has called two timeouts, including one just before the media timeout was going to be called. Hopefully he can say something to get these guys playing.
The Jack on the Rocks is doing wonders for my throat, in addition to making turning up the thermostat unnecessary.
Yours truly could not be any more excited for MLB to start. I could care less about the steroid controversy, I am just pumped to finally have a team in DC. If you make it to RFK, be sure to swing by section 308 and say hello.
Did Torey Thomas come out of the game? If so, I missed it.
3 for Hamilton. Good reaction out of the break.
St Joes mascot is just plain dumb looking. For those of you that don't know, he (a hawk) just stands there and flaps his wings. At least I guess that's what he is doing. The weird thing is that he CONSTANTLY flaps the wings, regardless of game action. It would make sense if he was flying. But hawks don't flap their wings when they're on the ground.
Simmons gets in with 6 minutes gone from the clock. Again, I'm boggled a) how he made the all-PL team off the bench b) why he doesn't start.
HC has stepped it up defensively in the last two possessions, and convert on a great transition 3 from Simmons. This is more like the HC we have seen so far this year.
Three great defensive possessions for HC in a row. Willard is one of the best defensive coaches ever.
Kevin Hyland at the line. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing for HC.
LIVE BLOG PART TWOSt. Joes crowd singing the soccer "ole ole ole" song.. Any idea why? Good crowd, some of which are prepared enough to let out "haaamilton" taunts as Kham throws away the first possession of the game.
Can we please get Ralph Willard a nicer sportcoat?
Timeout HC after a 3 for SJ to go up 5-0. Tell Nate Lufkin not to shoot, Ralph!
Hurley blows an easy layup, very typical mediocre PL post play. This is why McNaughton is so good-- while other guys in the league miss the close ones all the time, he usually scores all the easy buckets.
8-0 SJ. Uh oh...
Greg Kinsey hits a 3. Kinsey always struck me as the guy who gets dressed up to go to clubs.
Hurley goes strong this time with the right hand. Good look from Kinsey.
Not to disparage the Cross.. but would they have won at ND with the same kind of atmosphere they are seeing in Philly? SJ goes up 15-4 with an open three. HC needs to gain its composure.
IS THIS THING ON??ESPN2 is leading into the game with some thrilling poker action. Poker is about as much a sport as filling out multiplication tables.
KHam gets a nod as the "star" for HC. What do you think the HC players think of Bucknell winning a game in the tournament and more or less raining on their parade?
The NIT is sponsored by "Jordan", which is basically Nike. They're running those commercials with kids talking about how they are going to be better than MJ. Some little girl just said she was. I will make this crazy prediction: no woman will ever be better at hoops than Jordan. Until they get taller and faster, women's basketball will remain boring. I can watch guys hit layups at the playground down the street from me, so why should I pay money to watch girls do it? This ends your sexist portion of the blog.
Drink #1 on its way. Tonight I will partaking in fine Tennessee whiskey.
Tipoff about to go up.
I FIND YOUR LACK OF FAITH DISTURBING
Andre Williams, Lehigh beat writer, writes a story that more or less
writes off Holy Cross' chances against St. Joes tonight. Williams, you'll remember, was PL Bloggie beat writer of the year last year. So I am a bit disappointed.
THE MIND OF A MADMANGentlemen (no ladies read this crap), please join the PL blog for LIVE coverage of tonight's HC-St. Joe's matchup. If Blogger holds up, I'll be posting my thoughts as the game goes along, as well as the number of drinks I have as time goes along. I have a pretty nasty throat infection/cough, so Jack Daniels and I have an important rendezvous planned this evening.
Join in on the PL messageboard to the right. See you at 7.
CHRIS MCNAUGHTON, NBA PROSPECT?There has been a lot of talk about how great Chris McNaughton is, and that he might be one of the premiere centers not only in the PL, but in the entire country. Now, here at the PL blog you have seen the full endorsement of McNasty for a long time. But let's put to rest any talk of McNaughton being better than Adonyl Foyle or being an NBA prospect. Here are both players' sophomore year stats:
You'll notice Foyle is noticably better at most things. Most notably, his reputation as one of the premiere shot blockers nationwide was already in full form in his sophomore campaign. He was averaging 5.5 blocks per game, an extraordinary amount.
McNaughton, while having solid numbers, especially his FG%, just can't stack up to Foyle individually. Part of it is that the Bucknell offense is much more balanced than the CU offense was in 97--those extra 160 shots boost Foyle's offensive numbers substantially. Another part of it is that Colgate played a bunch of nobodies in 97--
their strength of schedule was 252 while Bucknell's is almost
100 points higher at 164. So McNaughton's numbers are hurt by playing better teams, both out of conference, and in the post-scholarship era PL. Despite those caveats, however, Foyle is clearly a dominant force in his sophomore year, while McNaughton lacks his consistency (see only 25 MPG).
So BU fans need not fear that McNaughton will jump ship for the NBA, as Foyle did after his junior year. McN is good, but he can't stack up to the dominant force that Foyle was, no matter how much the media talks up his new glass hightops.
BUCKNELL-WISCONSIN RANDOM THOUGHTSI don't have any particularly insightful analysis about the end of the Bison season, but here are a few things I noticed while watching the BU-UW game.

- First of all, someone tell the color commentary guy at CBS it's Bison, pronounced Bye-sin. Not Bye-son. Also, talking about how Bucknell has "Warmed the hearts of America" might just be a little over the top.
- You almost had to be rooting for BU to lose, just for the sake of Pat Flannery's health. The guy was going berserk with TWO SECONDS LEFT on the clock, yelling at the refs about foul calls. Note to Flannery: Not every referee in America is part of some conspiracy to stop Bucknell.
- While I'm at it, what was with Flannery pulling his starters with 45 seconds to go, only to reinsert them 10 seconds later? Maybe I am just seeing things that aren't there, but that seemed like a pretty wacky move.
- If Bucknell had eventually met OK State in the tournament, who would the Bison get for a pep band? They could have given the OSU band reversable shirts, and they could switch during every break..
- Chris McNaughton is awesome, and keeps getting better. McNaughton should be consensus preseason player of the year going into 2005-06. He wouldn't have been if BU lost in the PL final or in the first round of the NCAAs, but his performance in the last three games put him over the top.
- If you're a fan of any team that isn't HC or BU in the league right now, you can't be feeling good about your team's prospects going into 2006. While HC loses some depth, the idea of Tim Clifford and Pat Doherty getting more minutes isn't a bad thing for the Cross. Bucknell loses...Chris Niesz. Not exactly a backbreaker.
NOTHING COMPARES..TO YOUFour months ago, yours truly declared Bucknell to be the greatest PL team of all time. And I was right. Bucknell did the whole goddamn world proud tonight, with a big, huge, historic, and amazing win against Kansas.
F HC against Notre Dame. It meant nothing. Bucknell has struck a blow for the entire league.
There was a terrible intentional foul call against the Bison with a minute or so left to go, and even that didn't matter.
Your PL blogger is in shock. Amazing, wonderful shock. God bless the Bison, God bless the Vermont Catamounts. Be honest: Bucknell in the Sweet 16 is not the craziest thing you have ever heard. Never have I been so happy to be so wrong.
MATT B: TOTAL PESSIMISTIC JERKThere used to be a catch phrase: "Prove me wrong". Well, HC did just that tonight, and for that, I salute them!
Congratulations to the Saders for achieving the first post season victory in Patriot League history!
Because I was so wrong, I am suspending myself for the remainder of the week, much like John Cheney. I feel bad for the "incident" and apologize to all the people I hurt with it. I will pay the psychological fees to any HC player that comes forward.
WHY THE PATRIOT LEAGUE WILL NOT WIN IN THE POSTSEASON or MATT B: TOTAL PESSIMISTIC JERKOne simple reason: size. Check out the Notre Dame (or Kansas) roster, then look at the Holy Cross (or Bucknell) one. You'll see guys on the ND (KU) squad that are bigger, taller, and faster than the HC (BU) players. Chris Thomas, while he has had a bit of a down year, is certainly more than capable of guarding Keith Simmons or Kevin Hamilton.
That's the problem with playing major conference teams: they're just plain more talented than PL teams. That's why they call it the
BIG East, 12, 10, whatever. Because the players in those leagues are freaking monsters.
So before everyone gets all excited about a possible upset tonight for Holy Cross or Notre Dame, or even dreams of Bucknell beating Kansas, buy a quick reality pill from me. It's good shit brah, and I swear I got it from a guy I know really well, so it's totally clean.
Kansas can handle Chris McNaughton with a 1 on 1 situation, making life immeasurably more tough for the Bison. Similarly, Notre Dame can completely dominate the post against HC. BU or HC might hang around for a while (see AU vs. ND last year, or HC vs every major conference foe in the last 4 years), but in a 40 minute game, these big conference foes are just too good.
Just because the opposing teams' coaches or fans are acting as if they respect these teams doesn't mean that they actually believe there will be a close contest. They have to say crap like that, just so they can feed the pregame hype for the media. Have you ever heard a coach say that they should dismiss an opponent with ease before a game? No one says "Well, they're a Patriot League team, we ought to beat these guys by 30." But they're thinking it. Sure, they take the game seriously, but do you really think the coaches at Kansas aren't already checking out gametape from Wisconsin?
No one in their right mind should really think that Bucknell can beat Kansas or that HC can beat ND. This is the postseason. You don't catch teams taking a nap, like Bucknell did with Pitt earlier in the season.
So calm down, my PL friends. Yes, miracles do happen. And yes, I will be rooting for both BU and HC to pull off the upset. I'd love to write an excuse about how I underestimated Tyler Viaer-McClymont's senior leadership or misjudged Greg Kinsey's killer instinct or something. But both HC and BU are happy to be playing at all right now, and their fans should be happy with it as well.
AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY UNRELATED
Former AU standout and Duke transfer Christian Ast sold his
Duke 1992 championship ring on Ebay last month. No word yet on if he will be selling his CAA 4th place ring.
SOME POORLY ORGANIZED THOUGHTS, IN OLD SCHOOL HOLLYWOOD REPORTER FORMItem! Chris McNaughton is as good as I have been talking him up to be. I both fear and respect the finest German basketball player in college basketball!
Item! HC was harmed in the final by a phantom charging call, but more importantly by poor shot selection from otherwise stellar G Kevin Hamilton with a chance to tie near the end.
Item! HC will NOT make the NCAA, a grave injustice to a team that would be an easy upset pick regardless of what seed they were! I ask you this: if a team is a threat to reach the Sweet 16 as a high seed, shouldn't that be considered as a part of their resume? Could Indiana reach the Sweet 16? Certainly not! Could HC? Certainly!
Item! Talking and writing heads will talk and write about how the Patriot League's reputation in the tournament harms HC's attempt to enter as an at large. But shouldn't HC's reputation as a cinderella candidate in the tournament trump that?
Item!!! McNaughton is your guaranteed preseason player of the year for 2006!
Item! Funniest part of yesterday's broadcast: Kid with sign "SPRING BREAK WORCESTER MA 2005"
Item! Great crowds, both for Bucknell and HC!
Item! If HC had beaten BC, would they have been given an at-large bid? Certainly, it would have raised their RPI 10-20 points!
I'M STILL HERE
Things have been busy for your PL blogger in real life. That said, I'm going to catch this afternoon's game, so look here for my thoughts tonight or tomorrow. Snap prediction: HC by 10.
BUCKNELL/AU: A GAME RECAP IN HAIKUWith apologies to Masaoka ShikiIngram, Thomas miss
Crowd boos cheerleaders, how lame
Jones short in March again
THREE HOURS TO SHOWTIMEAnd I'm just now getting my predictions up for the tournament. Here's how I see it playing out. You'll notice I am predicting a total of zero upsets.
Chris at HoopTime has insightful summaries of the first round, so go check those out as well. You probably already have. Please post your own predictions on the message board link below.
ROUND ONE#1 Holy Cross/#8 Army
Remember when Navy scared the shit out of Lehigh last year as the #8 seed? Nothing like that will happen today. A long season comes to an end for Jim Crews, who is probably out of the IU job sweepstakes at this point. HC by 17.
#2 Bucknell/#7 Lafayette
Prediction: Lafayette will never get to a tournament final again, unless they get scholarships. It's a sad and unfair situation for their crew, with the higher ups over there doing everything possible to deteriorate what was once the best fan base in the league. BU by 10.
#3 American/#6 Navy
Coaches and journalists and fans always like to say that it's hard to be a team three times in a row. I don't buy it. Sure, they know more than I do, but shouldn't it become EASIER to beat a team after you have seen them twice and beaten them? AU will continue their domination of the service academies, getting their 10th straight win over them in 4 years, and their 11th in a row against Navy overall.
#4 Lehigh/#5 Colgate
The one game that should be really close. I think Lehigh can put it together, given their experience and success in the tournament last year. Maybe Mbegroff will finally wake up and do something useful with himself.
ROUND TWO#1 HC / #4 Lehigh
Unless Austen Rowland comes out of the crowd and takes Joe Knight's place, HC will win this one. It would take an extraordinary performance from Knight and Olivero from outside the line for anything else to happen.
#3 AU / #2 Bucknell
AU was blown out at BU and HC this year, so their road gets real hard starting at this point. I'll be at this game, if it happens (or AU/LC if that happens, I guess), so you can expect a report on it. I think AU could pull it out, but it would have to be a career day for the AU seniors. We'll see, but for now I'll take BU.
FINAL ROUNDHC/BU
This is HC's year. You know I will be rooting for anyone but them, but it would be pretty silly to predict anyone knocking off the Saders this year. If AU advances, I think they have a better shot than BU, given the experience of their Seniors, which is so critical is these sorts of things. So while my heart says AU could win this thing, my gut says HC is going to be all but impossible to beat.
That's it. Like I wrote earlier, post your predictions now, or you're not allowed to make fun of me when I turn out to be wrong.
PL BLOGGIES DAY FOUR

Today's category is artistic achievement, and the winner is HC Senior and Studio Art major Nate Lufkin. You can enjoy his wonderful artwork of people being
stabbed,
hung, and
doing drugs at the link below. And I quote "Click the Boobs to go to my Artwork". Classy and priceless.
Nathaniel Lufkin
Note: No, this has nothing to do with basketball. I debated posting it at all. But I thought you, the audience, would find it interesting. If it was just a personal webpage and didn't have the weird, violent stuff, I probably wouldn't have posted it.
BLOGGIES DAY THREE: BETTER LATE THAN NEVERToday's bloggies go out to the league's finest rebounders. That doesn't mean the league leaders in rebounds, it means those who rebound the most in the time they have. Moreover, resulted are adjusted for the pace that each team plays at. Quit reading now if you don't like numbers: the formula is rebounds over team possessions, divided by minutes played. Thus, if you play for Navy, you lose some stature in this measure because you have more opportunities for rebounds due to the extraordinary amount of possessions your team has.
Note that this doesn't make them the best players in their alloted time. If that was the case, then they would be seeing more time on the floor, wouldn't they? Rather, this measures rebounds only, so take it with a grain of salt.
Does that make sense? Let me know if it doesn't.
In the meantime, the award for the league's finest rebounder goes to HC freshman Tim "Big Purple Dogg" Clifford by a significant margin. Making the most of his time on the hardwood, Clifford outrebounded the entire league. Congratulations to him. HC fans (and the league itself) have railed me for missing their freshman PG on my all-league team, but Clifford got a lot more consideration in my mind, as he alone was responsible for HC's OT victory at the Splaver Center. HC's future is bright with this young man.

UPDATE 3/3/5:
As I wandered into PL blog HQ this morning, a thought occured. Yes, this is an exciting phenomenon. Perhaps part of the reason that Clifford and others who come off the bench are ranked so high in this chart is that a lot of their minutes come in "junk time", when a game is close, or when a team is playing Army. Therefore, perhaps, rebounds are easier to attain in the minutes they play. Maybe so, maybe not.
What you really need to make those kind of determinations is data on who's on the court at a given time. But we don't have that, so we'll have to make due with the above. I'm not 100% confident in it, but 80% will have to do for now.
OFFICIAL ALL LEAGUE TEAMS
All-Patriot League first team
Kevin Hamilton (HC)
Andre Ingram (American)
Charles Lee (Bucknell)
Chris McNaughton (Bucknell)
Keith Simmons (Holy Cross)
Second team All PL
Matt Bell (Army)
Kevin Bettencourt (Bucknell)
Alvin Reed (Colgate)
Jason Thomas (American)
Andrew Zidar (Colgate).
All-Rookie Team
Pat Doherty (Rookie of the Year)
John Griffin (Bucknell)
Corey Johnson (Navy)
Kyle Roemer (Colgate)
Greg Sprink (Navy)
PL BLOGGIES: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACKToday's category is Player of the Year and the all PL squads. Let's get to it!
POY: Kevin Hamilton, Holy Cross - How do you judge value? Well consider this: Hamilton accounts for 21% of his teams' field goal attempts, and averages a quarter of a point for every Holy Cross possession. That is, if the Cross has the ball four times, Hamilton has scored at least once. He is tops in both those categories, as well as in most of the crude defensive metrics I can put together. He's also HC's scoring leader, and when your team goes 13-1, the guy who puts points on the board has a lot to do with it. He'll be POY on everyone's list.
All PL Team (enter controversy):
Kevin Hamilton, HC
Jason Thomas, AU - Maybe a sentimental pick, but I gotta think he'll make the real list too. 4 time player of the week, court leader for AU, "heart and soul" etc etc all apply. Pretty good stats, as well. Also the most improved player since last year.
Charles Lee, BU - He shoots 45% from 3PT and 44% overall. Strange. He gets on the list above Bettencourt because he is a better rebounder and had better overall numbers. Bettencourt scores more, but he has more chances to do so.
Andrew Zidar, CU - Needed a big man for this spot, and he gets it done. Not the best shooter out there (or even on his team), but he is a rebounding machine for the Red Raiders.
Chris McNaughton, BU - Will make it on everyone's list by virtue of being the only true center starting in the PL. I've talked about him enough in the past, so you should know why he's good at this point.
2nd Team PL:Andre Ingram, AU - Hard to keep him off the first team. League scoring leader, but a few down games (albeit due to the flu, teams triple teaming him, or whatever) bump him down to the 2nd team. Could be POY next year.
Joe Knight, LU - Only here because of all the assists he got. I don't actually think he's that good, but he's probably the best PG in the league, so that's got to count for something.
Keith Simmons, HC - This guy is good. Real good. As in, if he played more minutes, he could be POY far and away. For a guard to shoot 52% is ridiculous. He also shoots FTs well and does a host of other things that make you wonder why he's still coming off the bench while Torey Thomas goes out and misses shots a lot. Hopefully someone from HC can fill me in. I get that Thomas is a PG, but I'm not sure he's a particularly good one.
Raimondas Petrauskas, AU - The problem with these lists is you need two post guys, and there aren't 3 good post guys in the league combined. Nonetheless, Petrauskas had a career year, shooting 55%, rebounding well, and playing the big body role that AU needed. He comes in 9th in Adjusted Value in the league, despite playing only 20 minutes per contest. This slot could have been filled by any mnumber of guys, including Matt Fannin, who I may have put one group too low.
Jamaal Douglas, LC - Read about him below in the reasoning as to why he's the best player on LC.
Honorable Mention: Kevin Bettencourt, BU - Scoring dropped with a few bad games, and the development of Lee and Badmus.
Sean Knitter, LC - I still think my joke about how good he would be in Iowa Girls League basketball is funny. You can't make me think different. I mean c'mon, picture this guy in a skirt. Ask a British person, crossdressing is the pinnacle of comedy.
Matt Fannin, Navy - Tied for league lead in rebounding despite on 26 minutes a contest. The word relentless applies to Navy when discussing rebounds.
Matt Bell, Army - Would star on any squad in the league. As the sportswriters like to say the "lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal season".
Kyle Roemer, CU - He could shine if he got more minutes.
All Freshman SquadFreshman of the year - Kyle Roemer, CU - see above
Corey Johnson, Navy - Part of a Navy team that could be real, real dangerous next year.
Matt Betley, LC - Every Matt is making this list, baby!
Bilal Abdullah, LC - Every Bilal is making it too!
John (Ford) Griffin, BU - Please kid, get rid of the hair gel.