Tuesday, October 25, 2005
PATRIOT LEAGUE PRESEASON ALL-LEAGUE: REALLY BORING
So everyone's preseason lineups for all league honors are going to be pretty much the same, with 6-7 guys in the running, all reasonable picks:
McNaughton, BU, Jr. - Preseason POY
Bettencourt, BU, Sr.
Ingram, AU, Jr.
Lee, BU, Sr.
Simmons, HC, Jr.
Hamilton, HC, Sr.
But who cares about all that. Preseason picks for this stuff are relatively meaningless once the first games get played. Instead, I would like to present the first annual PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM PRESEASON BREAKOUT LIST. Yes, that is an extraordinarily long name.
The idea here is that you already know what the guys listed above are capable of. But the guys you've never heard of or paid attention to can often be just as important as the guys who qualify as "big names" in the league above. These guys are chosen from hours of scouting, videotape, and countless work with the PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM supercomputer. Keep an eye on them as the season progresses, and when they come to your hometown.
PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM PRESEASON BREAKOUT LIST 2005-2006
Grant Carter, Sophomore, Army: Carter quietly put together a good freshman season on a lousy Army team that no one was paying attention to. Last season he acted as little more than a perimeter threat, taking 78 of his 82 shots from behind the arc during league play, setting what has to be some kind of record. He also dropped 21 against Navy in Annapolis. He shot 40% during PL play, not bad considering almost all of those were 3-pointers and the rest of the team shot a collective 37%. If he comes together, he could be a poor man's Kevin Bettencourt.
Linas Lekavicius, Junior, American: As older readers may know, I was way up on Lekavicius after his Freshman year. Unfortunately, I underestimated what a change of positions was going to do to his game, which was as good last year as it was during his Freshman campaign. Now it looks like he'll move back to the 2 spot where he has always played, instead of pretending to be a point guard. His game winning drive with time running out on the clock during the PL tourament against Navy may be something to build on. If he can become a scoring threat, he'll free up pressure against Ingram and freshmen Mercer and Carr.
Matt Fannin, Senior, Navy: Fannin was the PL rebounding champ last year, which I initially thought was a fluke, since Navy misses a lot and plays a high-tempo game, which leads to more opportunities for rebounds. It's like Vinny Castilla hitting 40 home runs while playing for the Rockies: an impressive number, but unimpressive circumstances. Luckily, the PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM supercomputer proved my initial bias wrong. By looking at how many minutes each player was on the floor and how many opportunities they had for rebounds (the formula is:Rebounds/Team Possession/Minutes), Fannin still beat every PL regular. That is, not only did he outrebound the league in pure quanitity, he also had more rebounds per opportunity than did any other regular PL player (more on who came in first shortly). As a Senior, Fannin could tap into those league biases and sneak on to the PL first team at season's end.
Tim Clifford, Sophomore, HC: Clifford led the league in the aforementioned rebounds-per-opportunity category. He had an impressive appearance last year against American in the Marc Splaver Center. His offensive skills are questionable, but his defense and rebounding abilities are ready for prime time. He won't score a lot, but won't need to (at least this year) as HC's offensive attack should mostly center around the guard positions.
Kyle Roemer, Sophomore, CU: He's as pure a shooter as there is in the league, but no one has noticed since he plays in Hamilton. Hopefully he can avoid the fate of Jose Olivero (the guy who he's most comparable to) and not go into a sophomore slump. It might help if he shaved that weird goatee looking thing on his chin.
Honorable Mention: Alvin Reed, CU; Matt Bell, Army (you should already know about him); Cory Sinning, Army; Greg Sprink, Navy; John Griffin, BU; Alex Woodhouse, CU; Brayden Billbe, AU @ 11:14 AM 2 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
So everyone's preseason lineups for all league honors are going to be pretty much the same, with 6-7 guys in the running, all reasonable picks:
McNaughton, BU, Jr. - Preseason POY
Bettencourt, BU, Sr.
Ingram, AU, Jr.
Lee, BU, Sr.
Simmons, HC, Jr.
Hamilton, HC, Sr.
But who cares about all that. Preseason picks for this stuff are relatively meaningless once the first games get played. Instead, I would like to present the first annual PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM PRESEASON BREAKOUT LIST. Yes, that is an extraordinarily long name.
The idea here is that you already know what the guys listed above are capable of. But the guys you've never heard of or paid attention to can often be just as important as the guys who qualify as "big names" in the league above. These guys are chosen from hours of scouting, videotape, and countless work with the PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM supercomputer. Keep an eye on them as the season progresses, and when they come to your hometown.
PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM PRESEASON BREAKOUT LIST 2005-2006
Grant Carter, Sophomore, Army: Carter quietly put together a good freshman season on a lousy Army team that no one was paying attention to. Last season he acted as little more than a perimeter threat, taking 78 of his 82 shots from behind the arc during league play, setting what has to be some kind of record. He also dropped 21 against Navy in Annapolis. He shot 40% during PL play, not bad considering almost all of those were 3-pointers and the rest of the team shot a collective 37%. If he comes together, he could be a poor man's Kevin Bettencourt.
Linas Lekavicius, Junior, American: As older readers may know, I was way up on Lekavicius after his Freshman year. Unfortunately, I underestimated what a change of positions was going to do to his game, which was as good last year as it was during his Freshman campaign. Now it looks like he'll move back to the 2 spot where he has always played, instead of pretending to be a point guard. His game winning drive with time running out on the clock during the PL tourament against Navy may be something to build on. If he can become a scoring threat, he'll free up pressure against Ingram and freshmen Mercer and Carr.
Matt Fannin, Senior, Navy: Fannin was the PL rebounding champ last year, which I initially thought was a fluke, since Navy misses a lot and plays a high-tempo game, which leads to more opportunities for rebounds. It's like Vinny Castilla hitting 40 home runs while playing for the Rockies: an impressive number, but unimpressive circumstances. Luckily, the PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM supercomputer proved my initial bias wrong. By looking at how many minutes each player was on the floor and how many opportunities they had for rebounds (the formula is:Rebounds/Team Possession/Minutes), Fannin still beat every PL regular. That is, not only did he outrebound the league in pure quanitity, he also had more rebounds per opportunity than did any other regular PL player (more on who came in first shortly). As a Senior, Fannin could tap into those league biases and sneak on to the PL first team at season's end.
Tim Clifford, Sophomore, HC: Clifford led the league in the aforementioned rebounds-per-opportunity category. He had an impressive appearance last year against American in the Marc Splaver Center. His offensive skills are questionable, but his defense and rebounding abilities are ready for prime time. He won't score a lot, but won't need to (at least this year) as HC's offensive attack should mostly center around the guard positions.
Kyle Roemer, Sophomore, CU: He's as pure a shooter as there is in the league, but no one has noticed since he plays in Hamilton. Hopefully he can avoid the fate of Jose Olivero (the guy who he's most comparable to) and not go into a sophomore slump. It might help if he shaved that weird goatee looking thing on his chin.
Honorable Mention: Alvin Reed, CU; Matt Bell, Army (you should already know about him); Cory Sinning, Army; Greg Sprink, Navy; John Griffin, BU; Alex Woodhouse, CU; Brayden Billbe, AU @ 11:14 AM 2 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Friday, October 14, 2005
PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS
Can you hear the sound of bouncing basketballs? The squeak of shoes on the court? Yes, basketball practice has started. Time for the annual PL preseason rankings.
Here's how I see things shaking down as we start the season. I'll update these as time goes on.
1. Bucknell - No brainer, but we'll see if their tough OOC schedule hurts them
2. Holy Cross - Another easy one. Questionable post production.
3. Lehigh - Potential with Knight, Olivero, and Mbegroff
4. AU - Freshmen could be good, Lekavicius could pull his head out of his ass, who knows, anything is possible
5. Colgate - Choneses make them respectable again
6. Navy - They will end the season higher than this, I think
7. Lafayette - They might end the season lower than this
8. Army - 7 wins or Jim Crews has to be done...right?
Now, here's my crystal ball prediction for how the season ends:
1. Bucknell
2. AU
3. HC
4. Navy
5. Colgate
6. Lehigh
7. Lafayette
8. Army
Can't really explain why that is, but we'll see how it plays out.
Post your predictions on the PL hoops message board. @ 1:29 PM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Can you hear the sound of bouncing basketballs? The squeak of shoes on the court? Yes, basketball practice has started. Time for the annual PL preseason rankings.
Here's how I see things shaking down as we start the season. I'll update these as time goes on.
1. Bucknell - No brainer, but we'll see if their tough OOC schedule hurts them
2. Holy Cross - Another easy one. Questionable post production.
3. Lehigh - Potential with Knight, Olivero, and Mbegroff
4. AU - Freshmen could be good, Lekavicius could pull his head out of his ass, who knows, anything is possible
5. Colgate - Choneses make them respectable again
6. Navy - They will end the season higher than this, I think
7. Lafayette - They might end the season lower than this
8. Army - 7 wins or Jim Crews has to be done...right?
Now, here's my crystal ball prediction for how the season ends:
1. Bucknell
2. AU
3. HC
4. Navy
5. Colgate
6. Lehigh
7. Lafayette
8. Army
Can't really explain why that is, but we'll see how it plays out.
Post your predictions on the PL hoops message board. @ 1:29 PM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
STATISTICS, DAMNED STATISTICS, AND LIES
Here's a comparison of the % of shots the top players on each PL squad took during league play and the % of points they scored on their team. The consequences of such things are a little confusing, and discussion is below. FYI, all these stats only include the 14 PL games last year, to make sure that the sample size and level of competition was the same for everyone.
Now what does this all mean? It's hard to say. You can't just assume that every player should be equal on the above graph. In fact, you want a guy like Ingram, Bettencourt, or Hamilton to take lots of shots most of the time, simply because they're the best shooters on the team.
But being the best shooter doesn't neccessarily make them the most effective shooter. That list is below (the best starts on the right then goes left).
(Note that's Joe Knight of Lehigh, not Simon of Colgate)
These guys are the most effective shooters in the league, based on the percentage difference between the number of shots they take and their points scored. Note that this takes into account free throws as points, a bonus to their effectiveness.
The opposite list is this (the worst offenders are on the left side, which makes things confusing given the opposite is true on the previous graph, sorry about that):
Now what does this all mean? There's a few things you can take out of this that I think aren't too controversial.
1) If there are two guys on opposite sides of that graph, then teams ought to at least consider giving more touches to the guy that uses his possessions more effectively. That is, it might have been valuable for AU to give more touches to Petrauskas (who is on the first list) and to take a few away from Cresnik and Okpwae. Of course, this is easier said than done.
2) While HC was wildly successful last year using Keith Simmons off the bench, it might have been more valuable to get him more minutes as he was the most effective scorer in the league using this valuation.
3) Shot distribution, by and large, was not really a problem last year, with the guys that can score taking lots of shots and the guys that couldn't score not taking as many. It seems obvious enough, but the value of these charts should be taken with a grain of salt-- the difference between Simmons and Zidar is 6.5%. That is, Simmons overperformed at 3.4% and Zidar underperformed at 3.1%, so guys were typically in the right range.
The problem here is that even if you give a Grant Carter (he's a incoming sophomore for Army) more shots, that's not a guarantee that his effectiveness will be the same. A guy can overperform if you give him 5 shots a game, but he can underperform if you give him 50.
But it's at least interesting to think about. @ 2:20 PM 2 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Here's a comparison of the % of shots the top players on each PL squad took during league play and the % of points they scored on their team. The consequences of such things are a little confusing, and discussion is below. FYI, all these stats only include the 14 PL games last year, to make sure that the sample size and level of competition was the same for everyone.
Now what does this all mean? It's hard to say. You can't just assume that every player should be equal on the above graph. In fact, you want a guy like Ingram, Bettencourt, or Hamilton to take lots of shots most of the time, simply because they're the best shooters on the team.
But being the best shooter doesn't neccessarily make them the most effective shooter. That list is below (the best starts on the right then goes left).
(Note that's Joe Knight of Lehigh, not Simon of Colgate)
These guys are the most effective shooters in the league, based on the percentage difference between the number of shots they take and their points scored. Note that this takes into account free throws as points, a bonus to their effectiveness.
The opposite list is this (the worst offenders are on the left side, which makes things confusing given the opposite is true on the previous graph, sorry about that):
Now what does this all mean? There's a few things you can take out of this that I think aren't too controversial.
1) If there are two guys on opposite sides of that graph, then teams ought to at least consider giving more touches to the guy that uses his possessions more effectively. That is, it might have been valuable for AU to give more touches to Petrauskas (who is on the first list) and to take a few away from Cresnik and Okpwae. Of course, this is easier said than done.
2) While HC was wildly successful last year using Keith Simmons off the bench, it might have been more valuable to get him more minutes as he was the most effective scorer in the league using this valuation.
3) Shot distribution, by and large, was not really a problem last year, with the guys that can score taking lots of shots and the guys that couldn't score not taking as many. It seems obvious enough, but the value of these charts should be taken with a grain of salt-- the difference between Simmons and Zidar is 6.5%. That is, Simmons overperformed at 3.4% and Zidar underperformed at 3.1%, so guys were typically in the right range.
The problem here is that even if you give a Grant Carter (he's a incoming sophomore for Army) more shots, that's not a guarantee that his effectiveness will be the same. A guy can overperform if you give him 5 shots a game, but he can underperform if you give him 50.
But it's at least interesting to think about. @ 2:20 PM 2 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
PL BLOG IMMEDIATELY DISCONTINUED!
Dear Readers,
Unfortunately things have gotten out of hand at your PL blogger's alma mater, and I have been called upon to lead AU back to glory.
That's right, I will shortly be announced as the fourteenth president of American University. I would like to use this opportunity to set out my platform.
1. Neogiate lifetime contract for Jeff Jones.
2. Doubling of basketball scholarships.
3. Hiring of former President Ladner's French chef for Terrace Dining Room.
4. Reinstate Football, Tennis, and Golf.
5. Take a 95% pay cut from Ladner's salary, earning $45,000 a year.
6. I get to keep the bubbly and debonair Mrs. Kiki Ladner.
If you need me in the future, feel free to drop me a line at president@american.edu. @ 10:56 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Dear Readers,
Unfortunately things have gotten out of hand at your PL blogger's alma mater, and I have been called upon to lead AU back to glory.
That's right, I will shortly be announced as the fourteenth president of American University. I would like to use this opportunity to set out my platform.
1. Neogiate lifetime contract for Jeff Jones.
2. Doubling of basketball scholarships.
3. Hiring of former President Ladner's French chef for Terrace Dining Room.
4. Reinstate Football, Tennis, and Golf.
5. Take a 95% pay cut from Ladner's salary, earning $45,000 a year.
6. I get to keep the bubbly and debonair Mrs. Kiki Ladner.
If you need me in the future, feel free to drop me a line at president@american.edu. @ 10:56 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Thursday, October 06, 2005
PATRIOT LEAGUE PRE-SEASON PREVIEW WEEK ONE
Here's shot distribution charts for each of the teams, more on this later:
@ 11:42 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Here's shot distribution charts for each of the teams, more on this later:
@ 11:42 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
2005-2006 TEAM BY TEAM QUESTIONS
Welcome to year three of your Patriot League Hoops blog. Storylines and questions for this year are as follows:
American: Who are these guys? Only six returning players and two starters remain, leaving AU with lots of holes to fill. Their only legit post presence during the first half will be Brayden Billbe, while the man known as Paul Jones comes in late December. Where does Linus Lekavicius play now that there are no less than three point guards on the team? Can the freshman contribute immediately like Ingram did in 2002? They have a lot of hype, and will need to live up to it for AU to be competitive.
Army: How long can Jim Crews keep his job while winning one DI game a year? I would venture to say that Crews needs seven wins this year if he wants to keep his job. Thus, the Army job-o-meter to the right. Out of kindness, we'll include non-DI contests, meaning Ws against powerhouses like NY Maritime and NY Polytechnic will count.
Bucknell: The Bison had the most successful season of any PL team ever, with two wins over top 25 teams, and national coverage of their breakthrough NCAA first round win. Can these guys be stopped? Will they develop the consistency that seemed to elude them throughout last season? Can Pat Flannery survive another year of this stuff? If they go under .500 in OOC play, will it shake their convidence?
Colgate: The Chones Brothers return, but what kind of difference will they make on a team that was mediocre in every way last year and has its best player in Andrew Zidar? Are they going to be in game shape? Is Marc Daniels going to be their starting center (they better hope not)? If Colgate scores 30 points a game and no one is there to watch, is the game official?
Holy Cross: They're the clear #1 contender to Bucknell, but the key will be beating Bucknell in the PL tournament. Can Tim Clifford be a top-tier Center and defend McNaughton? This is a team that only lost one regular season league game last year. They might have been the favorite despite their PL title game loss if Bucknell did not have their postseason success.
Lafayette: Who are these guys (part 2)? They had a couple good young players in Abdullah and Harley last year, but who knows what those guys will develop into. Lafayette's season this year and in every year afterwards will be about whether they finally get scholarships. It might be better for the program overall to finish in 8th just to show what an uneven playing field has emerged.
Lehigh: Is Joe Knight the guy that scored 45 on Colgate or the guy who went 3-17 in a half dozen other games? Can Olivero get over a sophomore slump that looked to steal his shooting touch? Lehigh has the potential to win with Knight, Olivero and Mbegroff if they all meet their potential, but inconsistency killed them last year.
Navy: Can the improvement continue? Despite losing their first five league games last year, Navy impressed me early on (you'll remember I predicted their first win vs. Colgate). They turned the battleship around and ended up going 5-4 in their last 9 contests. They even had their first really close game against American, scaring the shit out of me in their 83-85 OT loss to the Eagles in their first round PL tourney game. Now that coaches have had a year to see what Billy Lange's matchups brings to the table, will they be able to adjust?
Next: Team by team previews @ 3:52 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Welcome to year three of your Patriot League Hoops blog. Storylines and questions for this year are as follows:
American: Who are these guys? Only six returning players and two starters remain, leaving AU with lots of holes to fill. Their only legit post presence during the first half will be Brayden Billbe, while the man known as Paul Jones comes in late December. Where does Linus Lekavicius play now that there are no less than three point guards on the team? Can the freshman contribute immediately like Ingram did in 2002? They have a lot of hype, and will need to live up to it for AU to be competitive.
Army: How long can Jim Crews keep his job while winning one DI game a year? I would venture to say that Crews needs seven wins this year if he wants to keep his job. Thus, the Army job-o-meter to the right. Out of kindness, we'll include non-DI contests, meaning Ws against powerhouses like NY Maritime and NY Polytechnic will count.
Bucknell: The Bison had the most successful season of any PL team ever, with two wins over top 25 teams, and national coverage of their breakthrough NCAA first round win. Can these guys be stopped? Will they develop the consistency that seemed to elude them throughout last season? Can Pat Flannery survive another year of this stuff? If they go under .500 in OOC play, will it shake their convidence?
Colgate: The Chones Brothers return, but what kind of difference will they make on a team that was mediocre in every way last year and has its best player in Andrew Zidar? Are they going to be in game shape? Is Marc Daniels going to be their starting center (they better hope not)? If Colgate scores 30 points a game and no one is there to watch, is the game official?
Holy Cross: They're the clear #1 contender to Bucknell, but the key will be beating Bucknell in the PL tournament. Can Tim Clifford be a top-tier Center and defend McNaughton? This is a team that only lost one regular season league game last year. They might have been the favorite despite their PL title game loss if Bucknell did not have their postseason success.
Lafayette: Who are these guys (part 2)? They had a couple good young players in Abdullah and Harley last year, but who knows what those guys will develop into. Lafayette's season this year and in every year afterwards will be about whether they finally get scholarships. It might be better for the program overall to finish in 8th just to show what an uneven playing field has emerged.
Lehigh: Is Joe Knight the guy that scored 45 on Colgate or the guy who went 3-17 in a half dozen other games? Can Olivero get over a sophomore slump that looked to steal his shooting touch? Lehigh has the potential to win with Knight, Olivero and Mbegroff if they all meet their potential, but inconsistency killed them last year.
Navy: Can the improvement continue? Despite losing their first five league games last year, Navy impressed me early on (you'll remember I predicted their first win vs. Colgate). They turned the battleship around and ended up going 5-4 in their last 9 contests. They even had their first really close game against American, scaring the shit out of me in their 83-85 OT loss to the Eagles in their first round PL tourney game. Now that coaches have had a year to see what Billy Lange's matchups brings to the table, will they be able to adjust?
Next: Team by team previews @ 3:52 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
