Tuesday, January 03, 2006
MIDSEASON PATRIOTLEAGUEHOOPS.COM POWER RANKINGS
Before we start, I'd like to point out the extraordinarily lousy schedule most of the teams in the league play this year. If you look at Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule stats, 5 of the 8 teams in the league (everyone but BU, AU, and HC) are predicted to have their SOS, and thereby their RPI, increase with league play.
That means that despite the fact they play in a league with Army, most teams faced a non-conference slate that was less difficult than their conference slate will be. It seems that one ought to prefer the alternate, as HC, BU, and AU have, but remember that Lehigh won the PL crown two years ago with one of the worst OOC schedules you could come up with.
Here's how I see the teams stacked up as we go into the PL season.
1. Bucknell - Simply put, there is Bucknell, and then there is everyone else. A year ago, I said BU was the best team going into league play that the PL had ever seen (and was derided by many), and it's true again this year. In fact, they're better. 35 point drubbing by Duke aside, McNaughton looks stronger than last year, while their weakest starter is Darren Mastropolo, who would start on any of the teams below. Bucknell is as close to a sure thing to win the league as there can be.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 12-2.
2. Holy Cross - From here the list deteriorates. HC is #2, not because they've played well, but because no one other than BU has. HC also has played more games than any other team and has done so with more than half of its key players injured or sick at some point. Currently Keith Simmons is still listed as minute-to-minute, and backup PG Pat Doherty is unlikely to play significant minutes this year. That leaves Torey Thomas out there for 40 or so minutes a night, which could be a long term concern. For now, HC gets the benefit of the doubt because of their injuries that they will bounce back and be competitive in the PL.
Prediction I will come to regret: They either finish 10-4 or 6-8, depending on their health.
3. American - Here only because they have played mostly good teams, something none of the picks below can say. AU's freshmen are developing better than any other team's-- with Garrison Carr looking like Glenn Stokes Jr., and Jordan Nichols rebounding better than anyone I have seen in an AU uniform.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 9-5.
4. Navy - Don't look now, but the USNA is 4-5, and will probably enter league play 5-5 after they beat UMBC today. That's a big turnaround for a team that lost to DIII Gettysburg last year. Greg Sprink has dropped 30+ points twice so far, and Matt Fannin still looks to be a rebound machine, albeit not to the extent he was last year thus far. They've also developed a potent 3 point attack.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 9-5 as well, finally beating AU for the first time in PL play.
5. Colgate - Yeah, I know, they blew it against SUNY-Stony Brook, and that kills their RPI, but you gotta believe that the Choneses will come around at some point, and that they'll be one of the more athletic teams in the league.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 6-8.
6. Lehigh - Hard to say what bringing Joe Knight back will do for this team, but as is, they look like they have no size to speak of, which will be problematic regardless of whether Knight is in the game. Where the hell did Jason Mbegroff go?
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 6-8 too.
7. Lafayette - They're balanced, I'll give them that. Six different LC players average between 7 and 11 points. But again, they have no legitimate post presence, which is going to come back to haunt them.
Prediction I will come to regret: They STILL beat AU at home, since that's their thing. They finish 5-9.
8. Army - Let's keep things positive-- Army has already won one more DI game than it did last year. Sure, that number is two. But you don't need to worry about that.
Prediction I will come to regret: Army remains in the basement, maybe winning 3 games. 4-10 would be a big victory. @ 3:07 PM
Before we start, I'd like to point out the extraordinarily lousy schedule most of the teams in the league play this year. If you look at Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule stats, 5 of the 8 teams in the league (everyone but BU, AU, and HC) are predicted to have their SOS, and thereby their RPI, increase with league play.
That means that despite the fact they play in a league with Army, most teams faced a non-conference slate that was less difficult than their conference slate will be. It seems that one ought to prefer the alternate, as HC, BU, and AU have, but remember that Lehigh won the PL crown two years ago with one of the worst OOC schedules you could come up with.
Here's how I see the teams stacked up as we go into the PL season.
1. Bucknell - Simply put, there is Bucknell, and then there is everyone else. A year ago, I said BU was the best team going into league play that the PL had ever seen (and was derided by many), and it's true again this year. In fact, they're better. 35 point drubbing by Duke aside, McNaughton looks stronger than last year, while their weakest starter is Darren Mastropolo, who would start on any of the teams below. Bucknell is as close to a sure thing to win the league as there can be.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 12-2.
2. Holy Cross - From here the list deteriorates. HC is #2, not because they've played well, but because no one other than BU has. HC also has played more games than any other team and has done so with more than half of its key players injured or sick at some point. Currently Keith Simmons is still listed as minute-to-minute, and backup PG Pat Doherty is unlikely to play significant minutes this year. That leaves Torey Thomas out there for 40 or so minutes a night, which could be a long term concern. For now, HC gets the benefit of the doubt because of their injuries that they will bounce back and be competitive in the PL.
Prediction I will come to regret: They either finish 10-4 or 6-8, depending on their health.
3. American - Here only because they have played mostly good teams, something none of the picks below can say. AU's freshmen are developing better than any other team's-- with Garrison Carr looking like Glenn Stokes Jr., and Jordan Nichols rebounding better than anyone I have seen in an AU uniform.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 9-5.
4. Navy - Don't look now, but the USNA is 4-5, and will probably enter league play 5-5 after they beat UMBC today. That's a big turnaround for a team that lost to DIII Gettysburg last year. Greg Sprink has dropped 30+ points twice so far, and Matt Fannin still looks to be a rebound machine, albeit not to the extent he was last year thus far. They've also developed a potent 3 point attack.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 9-5 as well, finally beating AU for the first time in PL play.
5. Colgate - Yeah, I know, they blew it against SUNY-Stony Brook, and that kills their RPI, but you gotta believe that the Choneses will come around at some point, and that they'll be one of the more athletic teams in the league.
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 6-8.
6. Lehigh - Hard to say what bringing Joe Knight back will do for this team, but as is, they look like they have no size to speak of, which will be problematic regardless of whether Knight is in the game. Where the hell did Jason Mbegroff go?
Prediction I will come to regret: They finish 6-8 too.
7. Lafayette - They're balanced, I'll give them that. Six different LC players average between 7 and 11 points. But again, they have no legitimate post presence, which is going to come back to haunt them.
Prediction I will come to regret: They STILL beat AU at home, since that's their thing. They finish 5-9.
8. Army - Let's keep things positive-- Army has already won one more DI game than it did last year. Sure, that number is two. But you don't need to worry about that.
Prediction I will come to regret: Army remains in the basement, maybe winning 3 games. 4-10 would be a big victory. @ 3:07 PM
Comments:
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MattB, I love you, man. I love how you toot your own horn about how you predicted that 2004-2005 Bucknell was the best team the Patriot League had ever seen. Let's retrace this history in chronological order...
1. You made this prediction right after Holy Shit 1.0, yet still made another fearless prediction in that same article that "BU (will be) upended by whoever they face in the final game of the tournament".
2. You completely jumped off the wagon when they lost to Navy amidst their mid-season slump (while jumping back on the "when in doubt, bet the house on Willard" ship).
3. THEN, you wrote a 10,000 word essay on why Bucknell and HC wouldn't be successful in the post-season tourneys.
4. You pulled your abandoned prediction out of the recycle bin after the NCAA win against Kansas and have prominently displayed it in an umpteen number of posts since then.
Great prediction there, Nostradumbass.
1. You made this prediction right after Holy Shit 1.0, yet still made another fearless prediction in that same article that "BU (will be) upended by whoever they face in the final game of the tournament".
2. You completely jumped off the wagon when they lost to Navy amidst their mid-season slump (while jumping back on the "when in doubt, bet the house on Willard" ship).
3. THEN, you wrote a 10,000 word essay on why Bucknell and HC wouldn't be successful in the post-season tourneys.
4. You pulled your abandoned prediction out of the recycle bin after the NCAA win against Kansas and have prominently displayed it in an umpteen number of posts since then.
Great prediction there, Nostradumbass.
# posted by 
: 2:39 PM
: 2:39 PM
Hey baby, was I right or was I right? Bucknell was the best team going into league play last year, that's all I said. And you angry HC alums went nucking futs, as you are apt to do. I brought it up simply to reiterate that they are, once again, the best team going into league play that the league has ever seen. Maybe that will be less controversial with you guys this year.
I never jumped off the wagon, either-- last year BU was the best team going into league play, fact. I said it last year, and I'm saying it again. You can argue as to whether that's a fact, but not whether I changed my mind on that fact.
So I've been wrong too-- well duh. I think everyone is aware that I have been wrong from time to time, and when I am I typically call myself on it (see the "Worst of the PL Blog" to the right).
Thanks for writing.
Yours,
Nostradumbass
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I never jumped off the wagon, either-- last year BU was the best team going into league play, fact. I said it last year, and I'm saying it again. You can argue as to whether that's a fact, but not whether I changed my mind on that fact.
So I've been wrong too-- well duh. I think everyone is aware that I have been wrong from time to time, and when I am I typically call myself on it (see the "Worst of the PL Blog" to the right).
Thanks for writing.
Yours,
Nostradumbass
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