APR NUMBERS FOR PL SCHOOLS

AMERICAN 963
ARMY 957
BUCKNELL 929
COLGATE 923
HOLY CROSS 1000
LAFAYETTE 952
LEHIGH 904
NAVY 984  @ 4:52 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  SCHOLARSHIPS TO SLIP AWAY??

I will have a update about this as soon as the NCAA's website quits misbehaving and lets me take a look at the PL schools' numbers. Snap prediction: Lafayette will be the worst academically.  @ 3:56 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  PATRIOT LEAGUE BLOGGIES BONANZA: DAY ONE

With the run up to the PL chapionship, I'm going to be putting together a lot of lists, some of which you can argue with, and some of which you can't. That's right, it's the second annual PATRIOT LEAGUE BLOGGIES.

Our first category is MVP for each team. These are pretty basic, but if you're a casual fan, it's fun to know who the guy to watch for is when your team plays these schools. There is some controversy with some of these, so you're allowed to argue with me.

TEAM MVPs

AMERICAN
Jason Thomas - This is a tough pick, although you have to give it to Thomas over Ingram based on stats as well as simple observation. Ingram was clearly the focus of AU opponent's defenses, limiting his ability to get the open looks that Thomas usually had. But Thomas was often more of a threat, with a better shooting percentage, and more three pointers. Beyond stats, he is pretty well recognized as the "heart" of the AU squad, whatever that means. For those two reasons combined, he gets the nod. But Ingram is probably the better player.

ARMY
Matt Bell - According to L. Dean Oliver's Approximate Value method, Bell is the 22nd best player in the league, between Kyle Roemer of CU and Jason Mbegroff of Lehigh. But he's the best player on an otherwise poor Army squad, averaging 13 points and 4 boards.

BUCKNELL
Chris McNaughton - This one is debateable. But you had to see it coming. I give it to McNaughton because I think he's the reason for the success of Bettencourt, Lee, and Badmus. When teams have to double down on him, it gives them the open looks that they have been cashing in on. That's counts towards the "valuable" part of MVP. Averaging 11 and 5 isn't impressive unless you remember that he is being guarded by two defenders. Only 23 minutes a game makes me think twice about this one, however.

COLGATE
Andrew Zidar - I don't think he's the best player on the squad (Kyle Roemer or Alvin Reed would get that honor), but he's certainly the most valuable. Scoring and rebounding leader for 'Gate, and tied for rebounding lead with Matt Fannin of Navy.

HOLY CROSS
Kevin Hamilton - No debate here. Going to be POY on everyone's ballot.

LAFAYETTE
Jamaal Douglas - The most underrated and, according to approximate value, best, player in the league. While you might disagree with that assessment, check out how well rounded his game is. He shoots 52%, gets 7 boards a game, averages 12 points, and has 17 blocks. Now, before you tell me that I'm crazy and this guy is no where near the best player in the league, don't worry, I don't think that. Some of his stats are inflated by the fast pace that LC has, that is, he has more opportunities for rebounds, blocks, and points because LC has more possessions that most teams in the league. Regardless, he is the MVP for the Leopards.

LEHIGH
Joe Knight - So when I was putting this list together, I looked at the stats for everyone, and man, Lehigh looks real bad on paper. Joe Knight is their best player, shooting 31%, including a miserable 18 for 70 from behind the arch (that's 25%). But he has lots of dimes, so he gets the nod here.

NAVY
Matt Fannin - George O'Garro or Taj Mathews (spell your name the right way, with two Ts!) could have as easily won this one. But Fannin is (just barely) the scoring leader, and the rebounds leader. So he wins. (Previously, I had errantly said Fannin was a Senior. Apparently he just plays like one.)

NEXT: All-Freshman and All-League picks, before the league puts them out tomorrow AM. Look for something tonight or early tomorrow.  @ 11:06 AM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  YOUR TAXPAYER DOLLARS AT WORK

I've set up a board that I think is better than the current PL Hoops one we've got-- this is part of the move to patriotleaguehoops.com that I'm sure we're all excited about.

You can check it out here. You don't have to register or anything to post or to read things, but if you want to protect your good name, you can feel free too. I'm also happy to field any suggestions about how to improve it, or if you like the old version better. I like the new one because it's ad-free and allows for an easier read of the sometimes crowded current board.

Let me know what you think.  @ 4:29 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  I FINALLY GOT A PIECE OF THE PIE

The Patriot League Hoops blog is now at, conviently enough, www.patriotleaguehoops.com. Please change your bookmarks!

Thanks!  @ 1:03 PM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  USA TODAY: PL SHOULD GET TWO BIDS IF HC FALTERS

Thanks to Navy superfan PhatPhelix for this link...More about this later.
USATODAY.com - Leagues want to bring other members to NCAA dance  @ 10:58 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  ALSO..

Be sure to note Navy's SEVENTY ONE rebounds yesterday. That's thirty-eight more than Lafayette had. Maybe keeping them off the boards is a little bit important.  @ 1:46 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  TWO OUT OF THREE (FOUR) AIN'T BAD

So I was half right, at least, with yesterday's predictions. Navy scored the upset, and will finish in 6th place, their best finish in the last four years. They've been 7th or worse since facing HC in the league final in 2001.

AU also played the upset card, and now control their ability to get a third place spot in the PL tournament. If the Eagles can continue their 15 game winning streak against the service academies by beating Navy Saturday, they'll get the Mids again in Lewisburg. More importantly, your faithful PL blogger will be able to get out to that game and provide a report. So root for AU Saturday.

HC dominated Bucknell, and deep down I probably expected them to. But an all upset slate was too tempting not to predict. Give credit to Ralph Willard's virtually impenetrable defense. While earlier I may have been inclined to give the Coach of the Year award to Billy "Clubber" Lange, it would be hard not to say RW is any less qualified than anyone else, with a 13-1 record in conference play. He ought to get it. But Pat Harris somehow won it with a 6-8 record at Army in 2001, so those with an actual vote may screw it up anyway.

Army? Well what can you say about Army losing. I should have known better. Armee verliert immer. (That's German, just in case Chris McNaughton is reading)

More later on Saturday's games. A stat update, as well as my picks for POY and All-PL squads, will come after this weekend's slates. I need a little time to look things over before I weigh in.  @ 1:06 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  KEVIN TEMPEST IS SMARTER THAN ME

Worth noting..
Tempest named to ESPN Academic All-District Team :: Lehigh junior moves onto the national ballot  @ 4:03 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  WEDNESDAY AADAMS IS HOT NOW

So it's the last Wednesday of league play. What a downer. To pep things up, though, I'm going to predict a NONSTOP UPSET WEDNESDAY MASSACRE. That's right, dear reader, I believe the underdog is going to win every single game tonight. It's like a whole post full of trademark PL blog Predictions I Will Come to Regret. Why? Because it's fun, and because I just might be right.

ARMY WILL AGGRIVATE!
First up (and maybe the prediction most likely to fail here) is Colgate at Army. Army, you will remember, has been the subject of countless losses, as well as ridicule and name calling on this very blog. But I'm going to suspend my disbelief and give Army the edge here. Matt Bell has been on fire lately (no one noticed), and Army's good D will give CU some problems. CU barely beat the Plebes in Hamilton. Combine all that with a decent crowd because of the last Army home game all season (and Senior night for a guy that never plays), and you have a formula for upset!

NAVY WILL ANNOY!
The next one might not even be an upset, since Navy over Lafayette is not that big of a deal. The Midshipmen are dangerous at home, winning 3 of their last four, while scaring the shit out of Lehigh, Holy Cross, and AU there. Thus, a Navy win over a lower tier team in Alumni Hall is not such a shocker.

AU WILL ATTACK!
Okay, I don't have as much reasoning behind this one. What I do have is the hope that AU gets off its ass and starts winning ballgames again. They can still finish third, if a few things that are way too complicated for me to understand happen. This is a risky pick as well, since Lehigh more or less has owned the Eagles for the last two years. But sometimes you gotta go with your heart! Also, if anyone from AU is reading this, I NEED you to win this one, so you can get third place and I can go to games in Lewisburg. I am certainly not heading to Worcester

BUCKNELL WILL BOMBARD!
Finally, as I said yesterday, Bucknell will beat HC. They did it before, they'll do it again. HC might prove me wrong (I'm sure someone will point out they have before), but BU has the only consistent and legitimate post presence in the league, which, to me, presents particularly large matchup problems for Holy Cross. The way they can stop him? Tim Clifford. The guy takes up a lot of room down low, and while he won't do anything on offense against McNaughton, he could be able to muscle him around. The same can't be said of Lufkin or any of the other big guys on HC's roster.

That's it! Feel free to post your own predictions on the message board or in the "People think I'm full of it" below. Then check back tomorrow when I will either be a) making lots of excuses (i.e. "Michael Smiley is on roids!") or b) discuss how smart I am.  @ 3:14 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  THIRD PLACE / TIEBREAKER THRILLS

So, first and second place are locked up, with HC as the #1 seed and BU as the #2. That may not be statistically correct, but the only way it doesn't pan out that way is HC losing at home to Army. Those odds are about the same as me being named new head coach at Indiana (don't laugh, at least I would beat Northwestern).

So now, three squads that are mired in mediocrity are battling for the right to take on either Lafayette or Navy. We don't really know who. But Lehigh, CU, or AU will end up as the 3-5 seeds.

This Saturday's games were marked by a couple of upsets. Let's deal with Lehigh/Navy first. Navy's victory really wasn't a huge surprise, as the USNA has been playing good basketball for the second half of league play. But beating the Engineers in front of 3,700 is a pretty impressive task nonetheless. Was it 10 cent beer day or something at Stabler Arena? I'm not sure they drew 3,700 for the PL championship last year.

Lehigh's complete inability to make field goals continues to hound them, as they shot 33% from the field. Olivero and Knight are shooting 32% and 33%, respectively, for the year, less than impressive sums.

AU continues its recent skid, having now lost four straight games. Remember last year at this point, when AU won eight (was it eight? I think it was eight) games in a row heading into the PL final? Yeah, neither does anyone else at AU, apparently. AU is now headed for its worst conference record in its 4 years in the Patriot League. I have something to say about AU and their consistent inability to win close games, but that will have to come later. It's worth noting that five AU players fouled out, while LC took 37 free throws compared to AU's 13. AU, however held the rebounding edge by a large margin. Conspiracy? Scam? Home court advantage? Hell, I don't know, I didn't watch the game. But in similar games, it has been suggested...

Also of note is the disappearance of Patrick Okpwae. He played 35 minutes in the Eagles' season opener, but has played 10, 12, and 3 minutes in the last three AU games. Is he hurt? Is he back in Jeff Jones' doghouse? I don't know, but the fact that Craig Weinstein is getting more minutes than Okpawe is baffling.

HC and BU rolled over their respective opponents on Saturday, as expected, setting up a game with

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS

tomorrow. While the game won't change seeding or anything like that, BU can make a statement by beating HC for the second time this year. This could be a preview of the March 11 championship game. I'm going to take Bucknell again, simply because they won last time the two teams played, and I think that HC doesn't have an answer for McNaughton. (I am becoming a McNaughton fanboy, it seems. I realize he ain't Patrick Doctor or Pat Whearty, but don't worry, he will be in a year or two.)

Most of the images on the blog aren't working because I went over my bandwidth allocation for the month. They'll be back in 5 days or so, unless I can figure a way around it. While that's bad news, the good news is that means someone is actually reading this crap.

More later on stats..  @ 10:28 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  SUPER SATURDAY SHOWDOWN SPECTACULAR

Four games this Saturday, three of which are going to be interesting, and one of which Army is playing in.

League leading Holy Cross has to make the dismal trip to Hamilton to play Colgate in front of dozens of people. Coach Ralph Willard suggests that the lack of fan support for Colgate actually helps them-- and he makes a good point, since the Raiders are 5-1 in league play in Hamilton. I guess they can get used to playing for no one but themselves, while other teams have to adjust to crowds more suited for JV high school girls games.

This game is certainly winnable for 'gate but I can't see them getting around HC's excellent defense. Unless someone for CU goes unconcious and hits something like 6-7 from 3PT range, this should be a 10 point HC victory.

In the middle of the pack, Navy travels to Lehigh and AU goes to Lafayette. Both games are similar, in that you have a top tier team trying to stay that way against a team that really can't do much to improve their seeding at this point.

Navy, despite only 3 conference wins, is a pretty dangerous squad. At this point, you might have to give the Coach of the Year award to Billy Lange for doing so much with so little. If they can win here at Lehigh or next week at AU, it would certainly cinch that designation for me.

Lafayette continues to struggle, as will any squad whose best player can only play on one half of the court. If the Patriot League played Iowas Girls' Rules, Sean Knitter would be an MVP contender. As is, he's one of the bigger defensive liabilities in the league. Nonetheless, the Leopards are traditionally a good home team, and when they can play at their tempo, they are not bad.

Lehigh and AU are two teams whose schedules are so similar it's scary. Check it out:

Lehigh PL losses:
At Colgate, 54-61
At Bucknell, 63-65
Holy Cross, 56-58
at Holy Cross, 53-73

AU PL losses:
At Colgate 57-67
At Bucknell 52-65
Holy Cross, 67-76 (OT)
at Holy Cross, 56-80
Lehigh, 53-56

The one thing seperating the two squads is a ridiculous beyond NBA three by Joe Knight that won the game for LU at the Splaver Center in January.

Both teams have "must win" (what an annoying cliche) situations on their hands here-- they can't drop contests to teams that are 3-8 in league play this late in the season, or they're looking at a pretty tough assignment for the league tournament.

Speaking of which, the PL tournament starts in two weeks. Get pumped to go...somewhere. Unless you're an Army fan (have fun in Worchester, Cadets!), you really don't know where your school's tournament games are going to be, making planning for anything like that completely unreasonable. And you probably won't know until a week beforehand. Pretty weak.

ARMY PREDICTION
Today's language is Greek! ο στρατός θα χάσει  @ 11:36 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  IF YOU ARE JIM CREWS, WHAT IS YOUR WORST NIGHTMARE

Is it having to play at Holy Cross twice in one week?

The question here is whether Army will score enough points combined as HC will in one game.   @ 3:57 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  Maybe you missed this too..

Navy Coach Lange Has an Anchor in Evans (washingtonpost.com)  @ 4:47 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  WHAT'S NEXT

OK, so the PL tournament is all but set. It would be quite a surprise to see anyone but HC and Bucknell hosting games. That doesn't mean the last three games of the season are meaningless-- far from it, especially the upcoming HC/Bucknell matchup in Worcester. But in the meantime, let's take a look at the PL class of 2009, at least, as much of it as I can piece together.

AMERICAN
Carr, Garrison G 5'9" 145 Washington (previous coverage here and here)
Garris, Gary G 6'4" 190 New Jersey
Mercer, Derrick G 5'8" 160 New Jersey
Nichols, Jordan F 6'6" 215 Maryland

BUCKNELL
Castleberry, Justin G 6'1" N/A Maryland (more here)
Linthicum, Josh C 6'11" N/A Virginia
Vegotsky, Jason G 6'2" N/A Pennsylvania

HOLY CROSS
Cunningham, Colin G 6'7" 195 Tennessee
Dixon, Lawrence G 6'5" 200 Maryland
McCarthy, Greg C 6'10" 210 Massachusetts
Vander Baan, Alex F 6'8" 195 Massachusetts

LAFAYETTE
Leszczynski, Tom C 6'10" N/A New York Lafayette
Smith, Dave F 6'7" N/A New Jersey Lafayette
Young, Brian F 6'7" N/A New Jersey Lafayette

LEHIGH
Gourley, John C 6'11" 250 Arkansas Lehigh (also here).

NAVY
Kina, Kaleo G 6'2" 180 Arizona
Reed, Casey F 6'5" 185 Oregon
Teague, Adam F 6'7" N/A North Carolina (real link here)
Avant, Cecil G 5'8" N/A Florida

More as I get it. By the way, feel free to post additional info or comments by clicking on the "X people think I'm full of it" right below this post.

MB  @ 12:07 PM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  COLGATE UNIVERSITY HATES BASKETBALL

Scroll down to the end of this PDF File. Look at all the team average attendances, and try to find one lower than Colgate's 404. YOU CAN'T. The Red Raiders had the dubious honor of lowest home attendance in the NCAA last year. Divison III Wisconsin-Eau Claire was 30th in DIII in attendance, and doubled the attendance of CU.

Now look here. Somehow, Colgate is LOSING ATTENDANCE this year. They're averaging 309 this year, including the 350 and 302 that attended this weekend's games. There are 2,750 students at Colgate. If every single person at the games is a student (probably not the case), that means 9% of them give a shit about their basketball team.

The highest attended CU game this year? A massive crowd of 450 for Lehigh and Harvard. The lowest is 150 against Army, which is probably an inflated number.  @ 1:12 PM 3 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  JEFF JONES IS NOT AMUSED



...more about HC destroying everyone and the suckfest that is AU on the road later.  @ 12:51 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  IDIOTS ARE IN CHARGE or WHY I'M LEAVING WORK EARLY

Four games tonight, two of them interesting. Let's go to the tape!

AU takes on Bucknell, at 5 in the afternoon. That's right, they're playing while everyone else in the world is either a)at work b)leaving work or c)being unemployed jerks who sap cash from the rest of us. Start times haven't sucked like this since you had to get up at 4 AM to watch World Cup Soccer. (Yeah right, no one watches soccer!)

They changed the start time to accomodate media powerhouse College Sports Television (more like Crappy Sports TV, am I right? But seriously folks, you're a great crowd), a station no one has ever heard of and even fewer people have ever watched. This is the same station that canceled a broadcast of Army-Navy because of snow. If there has been a more 2 bit operation in the history of television, I've never encountered it.

Why did they move the start time from 7 PM to 5? So that CSTV could broadcast women's sports. No seriously, they're letting women play sports now. I was shocked too.

That's not the worst of it. It's WOMEN'S HOCKEY. They can't be serious, right? A WOMENS HOCKEY GAME is more important than DI Men's Basketball? Hell, they may as well broadcast clowns wrestling midgets. At least they'd get a better share of the 18-35 demographic. No one is going to watch a women's hockey game, except for the parents of the women participating. And even they are going to have to go to some lousy bar to watch it, because NO ONE GETS CSTV.

If the league renews their contract with CSTV for next year, it will be the dumbest move in sports history. This channel has done everything it can to provide shitty service, and they shouldn't be rewarded.

OK, enough whining and bitching. I get to leave work early to try to find this game on TV, so that's a plus. And Feinstein is proadcasting the game, so not everythign is wrong. Onto the actual games:

AU/BU is an interesting matchup, with both teams suffering letdowns lately. AU missed their shot at being a number one team in losing to HC last Sunday. Bucknell has just dropped like an ACME anvil, losing three of four, and making me look stupid for singing their praises. This is a tossup, but I'm going to give the advantage to BU because they're very very good at home. Linus Lekavicius had a great game in Sojka last year, so I'm going to go out on a limb and predict him to be the top performer.

The other fun game of the night is Colgate/Navy. I am starting to really like the USNA, and they're becoming the team no one wants to play in the league. If they win tonight, they get themselves into 5th place. They haven't been anywhere near the top half of the league for a long time, so a win here is a big deal for them. Road W's have been tough for them, however, so Colgate ought to pull this one out by 8 or 10. I actually hope that I'm wrong, since it's hard not to root for the underdog Midshipmen. They hustle and scrap, and it's hard not to admire that.

Otherwise, not a lot of action tonight. Lafayette and Army are continuing to suck. LC only has 2 wins this year, against Army and Navy. They will not give HC a scare, much less beat them.

A NEW FEATURE

And Army? Well, I'm starting to run out of ways to say they are going to lose. So from now on I will predict their game outcomes in a different language every time. This week's language is simplified Chinese! 军队丢失  @ 10:18 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  MEDIA FRENZY

So you would think a mention in this Philly Inquirer story would lead to lots of hits. Didn't really happen. Also, Chris from Hoop Time should have been mentioned.

Kind of funny to show up in print, regardless.  @ 3:27 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  THINGS YOU CAN DO (SOME CAN'T BE DONE)

So I've totally become obsessed with basketball statistics, and what they all mean. It may get repetitive for you all, but I find that applying them to something as small-scale as the PL to be quite interesting and intellectually satisfying.

And it's not like I like math. I think I attended my remedial math class (you had to take at least one math, and I sure wasn't going to take something HARD) at AU three or four times at the most.

I digress. I don't have anything new for you today, except for an updated version of the excel spreadsheet with all the fancy basketball numbers and such. I've imported the 2003 season data as well, so you can compare those players to today's. I'll have a couple posts on that eventually.

I tried to get the 2004 and 2002 data from the PL web site, but the archived stats there only have team info. Weird that they'd have individuals for 2003, but not 2004. If anyone out there can get me individual stats (in any format) for the 2003, 2002 or earlier seasons, I'd love to get my hands on it.

Also, if anyone is actually looking at this spreadsheet, let me know. If no one is, then I won't go through the trouble of uploading it.  @ 4:23 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  APPLES AND ORANGES

This is kind of silly, but who cares, I think it's interesting. I calculated what every PL players' Approximate Value would be if they played an entire NBA season the way they've played in the 9 games thus far. Why? Because then we can get a feel for how each players' season compares to seasons NBA players have had. Dean Oliver uses this metric to decide how valuable a players' season has been with AV:

A score of about twenty indicates an exceptional MVP season.
A score of seventeen or eighteen indicates a strong MVP candidate or an ordinary MVP season.
A score of sixteen indicates an MVP candidate.
A score of fifteen indicates a definite All-Star who is a marginal MVP candidate.
A score of fourteen indicates a probable All-Star.
A score of thirteen indicates a marginal All-Star.
A score of twelve indicates a very fine season; an All-Star candidate.
A score of eleven indicates an above average regular; an excellent player playing about 1800 minutes.
A score of ten indicates an average regular or a very good sixth man.
A score of nine indicates an average regular or a good sixth man.
A score of eight indicates a fair regular or an average sixth man.
A score of six or seven indicates an average bench player or a good player playing under 1500 minutes.
A score of four or five indicates a player who plays about 1000 minutes and who doesn't deserve many more.
Scores of three or less usually indicate players who are unimpressive in limited playing time.

Here's how it looks for the league, if players continued at 82 games the way they play now, with the additional 8 minutes in each NBA game factored in as well:



Dan Gentile doesn't belong on this list, but he's played well in the few minutes he's had. He hasn't played in a while, though, and probably wouldn't be on this list if he had played more.

Now does this mean that Douglas, Hamilton, Simmons, Ingram, and Monserez are all having MVP years? Maybe not. But it's definitely fun to think about. Note that despite his complete inability to hit the side of a barn in the last month, Joe Knight is ranked high for his other contributions.  @ 4:59 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  DYNASTY WAS A CRAPPY TV SHOW AND WE ALL KNOW IT

Reasons I hate New England sports fans:

1) Pats win, pissing off Eagles fans, but also honest gamblers like myself because the jerks couldn't cover the spread.
2) Bruins logo is ugly
3) The HC fan I saw yesterday at the AU game who showed up with a polo shit with the collar flipped up. What a dork.

OK, that's enough venting. It was a tough day yesterday for your PL blogger, with both sets of Eagles losing, the NFL version costing me. Here's why I'm optimistic about the amateur Eagles: they weren't going to win first place anyway. Their schedule is such that they now travel to Bucknell, Lehigh, Lafayette, and Colgate. They weren't (and probably aren't) going to win all those games, so they would have ended up in a battle for second place anyway.

But the loss yesterday does sting a little. Probably more for Andre Ingram than me. I could have sworn I have watched this same game time after time against Holy Cross. My first thought when AU had the ball with the chance to win and 20 seconds was "DONT LET STEVEN MILES SHOOT IT" then "OH GOD I'M HAVING THE VISIONS AGAIN".

Now it comes down to a race for second, with the likelihood of anyone knocking off HC to be #1 seed very small.

More later.  @ 10:13 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  REBOUNDING STATS

I've put together a few more individual numbers from halfway through the season, which have interesting results. The idea with these is to look at what each part of the team is contributing, and in doing so, teams can adjust properly.

First, let's see who the best rebounders in the league are, on a per minute basis.



These are a per-minute-basis on which to judge how well big guys (and small guys, I guess) are working the boards during their time on the court. You can see that AU, Lafayette and Navy have the best rebounding players, on a minute to minute basis.



With offensive rebounds, Navy takes over. They have four of the top 6 players. The Midshipmen's ability to get offensive boards make them that much more dangerous. More on that later.



Defensively, BU and CU improve on the glass.

Notable in the rebounding statistics is the fact that the top two rebounders are Sean Knitter, and Brayden Billbe, both bench players.

On the per minute basis, we can also look at who is the most valuable player out there. The numbers say its Raimondas Petrauskas.



Most of these guys have limited minutes, that is, they are usually fresh when they are in the game. That probably has something to do with their ability to hit the boards, score, and work defensively with more energy than starting players over 30+ minutes. One more stat.



This is adjusted FG%, which gives credit for a shot and half on three pointers. The idea is that a 3 is worth 1.5 what a two point bucket is. Nate Lufkin, currently injured, was the tops in this category before Friday.

I don't have the time to analyze this a lot...but AU and LC might want to give Billbe and Knitter a closer look.  @ 6:44 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  FRIDAY NEVER HESITATES

The first half of this weekend's games are relatively straightforward.

-AU hosts Army, where AU hopes to continue their domination of the service academies during their tenure in the PL. Neither Army or Navy have beaten the Eagles in the last 4 years, so don't look for an upset here. The last time Army beat AU was 1963.

-Holy Cross travels to Annapolis, in a dangerous game for them. HC blew the roof off the Midshipmen earlier in the year, but they have a new defense and newfound confidence after their last two wins. Whoever dictates tempo in this one will win-- if HC can't stop Navy from throwing up a lot of shots and getting offensive rebounds, then they may be in trouble. I don't see that happening.

-Colgate and Lehigh battle for fourth place, and I'm really not concerned about it. This one is impossible to predict, since both teams are wildly inconsistent.

-Bucknell tries to get back on track, and they ought to do so in Easton against Lafayette. The Leopards, it seems, are as bad as I said they were, and don't look like they're getting any better.

All the exciting games are on Sunday. I look forward to the AU game tonight, but feel bad for Jim Crews, who by all accounts is a good coach and a good guy. That still doesn't mean I want him to win tonight.  @ 1:02 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN: A USEFUL ESOTERIC POST ABOUT NUMBERS

(You can read about previous stat-nerd things here and here--these ideas are mostly stolen from these guys)

“Keeping records enhances the pleasure of the search, and the chance of finding order and meaning in these events.” - Aldo Leopold

While Leopold probably didn't have small time college basketball in mind, his quote is relevant-- when we look at the records and numbers of what's gone on so far in league play, we can take away a few things. But it's going to take some math, so try not to fall asleep first.

We went over points per possession in the previous points about stats. It's a pretty straightforward way of looking at how well a team gets the ball in the bucket every time down the court, much better than points per game. That's the stat below.


That includes possessions per game as well. For instance, AU has an average of 65 possessions per game, and they score a little over a point on every possession they have. Think of it like this: AU, on average scores a 2 field goal every other trip down the court. You can look at the possessions per game stat as a measure of pace for each team.

Holy Cross, surprisingly enough given their poor offensive showings last year and early this year, is the best offensive team in the league 7 games in. They also are one of the slowest, with a full 11 possessions less than Navy, the team that likes to play the fastest game. That is probably more an expression of their defensive side-- HC does a good job of forcing a team to run the clock down, thereby reducing possessions on both ends. Also note that Bucknell does not score a lot of points per possession, at fourth in the league.

Here's the stats for what teams give up on defense. Possessions per game are about the same for a team's offense and defense.



Colgate's defense is the worst in the league, despite their 3rd place standing on the offensive end. Army, Navy, and Lafayette are also pretty lousy. Again, Holy Cross has the best defense, with Bucknell and Lehigh close behind.

So, wrapping up those stats, HC looks really good, with BU and AU just behind. Nothing too amazing there, but it shows that HC deserves the games it's won, and they're not just winning on a fluke. It is somewhat surprising that BU's offense looks so midlevel, while HC's much maligned shooting looks pretty good.



Floor percentage is a measure of how often a team scores on each possession, be it via free throw, three pointer, or field goal. Again, Holy Cross is the best team in this category, scoring on 54% of their trips down the court. Army's offensive woes are pronounced in the fact that they only score every three possessions, much fewer than every other team. Bucknell is second worst, with Lafayette and Lehigh close behind.

Colgate's defense is again exposed for it's many problems, as they have serious difficulty stopping their opponent from scoring. Holy Cross is again the best defense, with Lehigh second best.

So HC is essentially dominating on defense, and better than most teams on offense. Why is that?

Part of the reason is that they're getting 6 more possessions per game in league play.



The above is a chart of how many FG attempts each team gets (and how many their opponent games) per 66.1 possessions, the average in a PL game. This includes free throws as well, but in a weird way that makes sense but i dont want to get into right now. This means that HC and Navy are getting 6 and 4 more shots off, respectively, per game than their opponents.

Say HC is hitting 50% of their shots-- this means they're getting an additional 6 points a game from their control of the tempo. That's a big margin, and it's part of the reason they beat Lehigh last Sunday. AU, on the other hand, is taking two fewer shots a game than their opponents, part of the reason the lost to Lehigh back on January 6.

One last stat-- what I'll call "Statistical Wins". This is the number of games each team should have won, if their offensive and defensive output were consistent, that is, if their number of shots made were the same every game, and their points allowed were the same.



You can see that this system gives HC, LU and AU an additional win, while taking away wins from Army, Navy, and Colgate. Lehigh is the "least lucky" or "most inconsistent" of the teams.

So what does this all mean? A few conclusions can be drawn by looking at a team's stats. Let's use league leader HC as an example:

Teams that are playing Holy Cross cannot allow them to dominate the tempo of the game. HC allows very few possessions for its opponents, and they're good at getting good looks in the few shots that they take. That means they should extend out on defense, guard the passing zones, and look to run as often as possible, speeding up the game to a pace HC is not as comfortable with.

Moreover, teams should consider giving up on the idea of limiting turnovers against the Cross-- they're going to get them one way or another, so you might as well push the ball instead and beat them at their own game.

One more stat. This one's for individuals. It's called approximate value, and it's a way of calculating a player's value, albeit imperfectly. The formula is a little weird, but it works relatively well. Here's what it comes up with thus far for the best players in the league:



This system says that HC has the two best performers thus far. It also says that Raimondas Petrauskas has been AU's MVP early on, while Nick Monserez is the best player for LU, both surprises. Whether this system is valid, I leave up to you. But it works in the NBA pretty well, and by year's end I think it will work even better, with more games and a smaller margin of error.

Well, that's all. Let me know if any of you actually read all this, or if you fell asleep.
  @ 6:47 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  POUR OUT A LITTLE

While we're discussing AU history, I am proud to announce that we at this blog will from now on be refering to the building known as "Bender Arena" as the "Marc Splaver Center" in honor of the man the building should have been named after. I encourage all of you to please do the same, as Mr. and Mrs. Bender don't need your recognition any more.

Thanks for nothing, Abe Pollin.

The Washington Post
May 20, 1978, Saturday, Final Edition
SECTION: Sports; D5
Splaver Center Planned at AU

Abe Pollin, chairman of the board of Capital Centre and president of the Washington Bullets, along with his wife, Irene, will lead a nationwide drive to raise funds to build a sports and convocation center on the American University campus, it was announced yesterday.

The center will be named for Marc Splaver, former Bullets director of public relations. Splaver died May 3 of leukemia. A graduate of AU, Splaver served as the school's sports information director before joining the Bullets.

The amount of money to be raised and the timetable for construction of the center have not been determined.

American has only a small practice gymnasium and plays its basketball games at Fort Myer.

Such a facility has been discussed since 1947, according to AU Athletic Director Bob Frailey, and sketches were first prepared in 1949. The school's board of trustees last week gave the building priority as the next structure to be built on the campus.   @ 5:46 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  IN THE MEANTIME

While I'm still working on that post about midseason stats (I know you are waiting with baited breath), I thought I'd share the coolest thing to come in my mailbox since Bill Clinton sent me a birthday card. Note that our current President has never wished me a happy birthday.

I won a 1972 AU Media Guide on Ebay, and it's chock full of goodies. See:


Here's the cover. The guide is kind of small, about the size of those old Baseball Digest magazines, if you know what I'm talking about.


Here's a friendly greeting from then AU SID Marc Splaver. Splaver went on to a great career in the NBA, where the annual award for best PR director is now named after him. Whaddya know.

I'll throw in other pictures later on. And hopefully, I'll have my stats post up later tonight, tomorrow at the latest.  @ 5:11 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard

  EXCITING NEW STATS or MAN WHAT A NERD

So I spent a good chunk of yesterday screwing around with Excel, and figured out how to import the individual stats from the PL website. Which means now there are lots of exciting things we can do to analyze what's going on in the league.

While I'm working on crunching the numbers, you can download the spreadsheet, with lots of numbers here. (It's a 2MB file, so it may take some time to download) Some of the stats are a little bit esoteric, but you can also sort by shot attempts, three point attempts, uniform number, etc etc for any stat you like, which is pretty basic. Feel free to spread that around. Hopefully someone in a team office somewhere gets it, and can put it to better use than you or I. Maybe whoever those hits I get from sportscenter.american.edu will pass it along. But it's probably just a student in the gym.

I'll have a post up sometime soon (hopefully tonight or tomorrow, depending how quickly I can work my slide ruler) with some insight as to what we can tell so far from the numbers, halfway through the season.   @ 11:56 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard