Friday, December 31, 2004
POST HOLIDAY PROPAGANDA
Sorry for the lack of updates-- the holidays are a particuarly lazy/busy season for your PL blogger, full of bowl games, car shows, and general family fun. But enough about me, let's see what happened during the best holiday season ever.
I caught two AU games, both losses. First, AU battled Maryland, and did surprisingly well. With 10 minutes left, somehow AU was still in the game. My crew and I were boggled, since we went in hoping to break double digits. There's not a lot you can say about the game-- their guys were just bigger, stronger, and faster, and when they started hitting their three pointers, we struggled.
Jeff Jones did a great job of coaching in this game, switching up defenses, going from man to man to 2-3 zone. The zone looked as good as I've seen AU execute it in the past. This was the first time I've seen them use it this season, but maybe I wasn't paying enough attention or they have used it on the road before.
AU looked much worse against LaSalle, a team that just wasn't very good. Again, their guys were a lot bigger and faster, but only one or two seemed to be real ballplayers. But AU simply didn't seem motivated for most of the game. Jason Thomas played like a freshman, going for a dunk and missing when he should have simply laid the ball up, infuriating Coach Jones and causing a 4 point turnaround during a critical part of the game. You'll note this is not the first time JT has made such a mistake-- it more or less loss the game for AU during the debacle that was LC at AU last year.
Often I think it's silly to tag one play or one possession as the reason things go wrong for a team. If there are 70 possessions in a game, then how could one be so critical?
But mental mistakes like going for a dunk when a layup will do can kill a team, and cause their coach to lose his hair prematurely. They can ruin seasons, not just individual games. Think about it-- a layup last year in the LC game wins it for AU. That would make AU the outright #1 seed going into the PL tournament, meaning the final would have been at AU, not Lehigh. Who knows what happens then..
Yeah, I know. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a great halloween (or something like that). But that's not what I'm getting at-- I'm not trying to say that one play ruined AU's season last year. Rather, it's important to stay focused on the court. Playing smart is often more important than anything else.
Which brings us to the LaSalle game. It's not that AU was beaten by LaSalle, it's that they beat themselves. People have cold nights, but going 1-11 (Thomas) and 0-9 (Lekavicius) is not something that has anything to do with talent or ability. It has to do with mental focus.
Maybe the problem was the lousy crowd-- those winter break games always suck and it's hard for anyone to really get excited about them, whether it be the fans or the players.
Alright, enough about my favorite squad. Let's talk about what everyone else did on their winter vacation.
Bucknell is on a real hot streak, beating Mid-Major darling Niagara and former powerhouse St. Joseph's. What I missed earlier in the Niagara game is that BU held them to 74 points, well below their 90 point average. Why? I'd say Chris McNaughton has a lot to do with it. McNaughton held Canadian national hero Juan Mendez to 18 points, drawing 3 of the 5 fouls that led Mendez to leave the game with 6 minutes left. McNaughton also shut down St. Joe's post players, limiting their 4 and 5 players to 6 points.
While Bucknell has an answer to offensive threats under the hoop, it seems Holy Cross is not as certain about their post players. You'll remember that last year, I thought HC had three main tenets in their trifecta of league titles two of which were missing.
I'm not sure they have #1 right now, but it looks like they're getting closer to #3 than they were last year. However, they're getting away from their half court defense, allowing around 70 points a game in their last three games. Other folks (my pal Chris at HoopTime and Kyle at MidMajority) are arguing that this is a dangerous way for HC to go, and it seems like Coach Ralph Willard agrees, from his quotes in the media.
I'm not so sure about whether it is such a bad thing. If HC doesn't have the post presence they used to have, then slowing a game down to a half court contest doesn't seem to make as much sense as when they had Szatko or Whearty to go to. HC may give up more points, but if they get into a quicker game, they allow their best players, Hamilton and Simmons, to get more looks and shoot more threes.
They'll run into problems when they play teams that are more athletic than them, like AU or Bucknell with that sort of strategy. But then they can hunker down and switch to the half court offense.
It's a pretty simple concept: If you think your team is faster and better shooters than the other team, then you want to play a game with a lot of running and a lot of possessions. That's why you see major conference schools put full court pressure on mid-majors whenever they play. Those schools have better athletes and shooters in the long run. So if HC thinks it's got a more athletic squad than its opponent (as they did against Brown and Northeastern), then an up-tempo game ain't such a bad thing.
Will they stick with it? Probably not. Ralph Willard has been watching basketball a lot longer than me, and knows a lot more about it than me, and he seems to be sure that strong defense is the way to wins. But as an outsider, I'm not sure he's got the personnel to survive a half court game in league play. Especially when they play Bucknell and lose any advantage in the post.
I'm off to buy a cheap bottle of champagne and carry it around pretending it's Cristal and I'm P Diddy. Have a great 2005. @ 3:51 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Sorry for the lack of updates-- the holidays are a particuarly lazy/busy season for your PL blogger, full of bowl games, car shows, and general family fun. But enough about me, let's see what happened during the best holiday season ever.
I caught two AU games, both losses. First, AU battled Maryland, and did surprisingly well. With 10 minutes left, somehow AU was still in the game. My crew and I were boggled, since we went in hoping to break double digits. There's not a lot you can say about the game-- their guys were just bigger, stronger, and faster, and when they started hitting their three pointers, we struggled.
Jeff Jones did a great job of coaching in this game, switching up defenses, going from man to man to 2-3 zone. The zone looked as good as I've seen AU execute it in the past. This was the first time I've seen them use it this season, but maybe I wasn't paying enough attention or they have used it on the road before.
AU looked much worse against LaSalle, a team that just wasn't very good. Again, their guys were a lot bigger and faster, but only one or two seemed to be real ballplayers. But AU simply didn't seem motivated for most of the game. Jason Thomas played like a freshman, going for a dunk and missing when he should have simply laid the ball up, infuriating Coach Jones and causing a 4 point turnaround during a critical part of the game. You'll note this is not the first time JT has made such a mistake-- it more or less loss the game for AU during the debacle that was LC at AU last year.
Often I think it's silly to tag one play or one possession as the reason things go wrong for a team. If there are 70 possessions in a game, then how could one be so critical?
But mental mistakes like going for a dunk when a layup will do can kill a team, and cause their coach to lose his hair prematurely. They can ruin seasons, not just individual games. Think about it-- a layup last year in the LC game wins it for AU. That would make AU the outright #1 seed going into the PL tournament, meaning the final would have been at AU, not Lehigh. Who knows what happens then..
Yeah, I know. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a great halloween (or something like that). But that's not what I'm getting at-- I'm not trying to say that one play ruined AU's season last year. Rather, it's important to stay focused on the court. Playing smart is often more important than anything else.
Which brings us to the LaSalle game. It's not that AU was beaten by LaSalle, it's that they beat themselves. People have cold nights, but going 1-11 (Thomas) and 0-9 (Lekavicius) is not something that has anything to do with talent or ability. It has to do with mental focus.
Maybe the problem was the lousy crowd-- those winter break games always suck and it's hard for anyone to really get excited about them, whether it be the fans or the players.
Alright, enough about my favorite squad. Let's talk about what everyone else did on their winter vacation.
Bucknell is on a real hot streak, beating Mid-Major darling Niagara and former powerhouse St. Joseph's. What I missed earlier in the Niagara game is that BU held them to 74 points, well below their 90 point average. Why? I'd say Chris McNaughton has a lot to do with it. McNaughton held Canadian national hero Juan Mendez to 18 points, drawing 3 of the 5 fouls that led Mendez to leave the game with 6 minutes left. McNaughton also shut down St. Joe's post players, limiting their 4 and 5 players to 6 points.
While Bucknell has an answer to offensive threats under the hoop, it seems Holy Cross is not as certain about their post players. You'll remember that last year, I thought HC had three main tenets in their trifecta of league titles two of which were missing.
1) Own the low block on offense with bigger and stronger players, rebound and deny easy looks down low on defense
2) Play good half-court D
3) Have the experience to hit clutch shots and know how to take a game away
I'm not sure they have #1 right now, but it looks like they're getting closer to #3 than they were last year. However, they're getting away from their half court defense, allowing around 70 points a game in their last three games. Other folks (my pal Chris at HoopTime and Kyle at MidMajority) are arguing that this is a dangerous way for HC to go, and it seems like Coach Ralph Willard agrees, from his quotes in the media.
I'm not so sure about whether it is such a bad thing. If HC doesn't have the post presence they used to have, then slowing a game down to a half court contest doesn't seem to make as much sense as when they had Szatko or Whearty to go to. HC may give up more points, but if they get into a quicker game, they allow their best players, Hamilton and Simmons, to get more looks and shoot more threes.
They'll run into problems when they play teams that are more athletic than them, like AU or Bucknell with that sort of strategy. But then they can hunker down and switch to the half court offense.
It's a pretty simple concept: If you think your team is faster and better shooters than the other team, then you want to play a game with a lot of running and a lot of possessions. That's why you see major conference schools put full court pressure on mid-majors whenever they play. Those schools have better athletes and shooters in the long run. So if HC thinks it's got a more athletic squad than its opponent (as they did against Brown and Northeastern), then an up-tempo game ain't such a bad thing.
Will they stick with it? Probably not. Ralph Willard has been watching basketball a lot longer than me, and knows a lot more about it than me, and he seems to be sure that strong defense is the way to wins. But as an outsider, I'm not sure he's got the personnel to survive a half court game in league play. Especially when they play Bucknell and lose any advantage in the post.
I'm off to buy a cheap bottle of champagne and carry it around pretending it's Cristal and I'm P Diddy. Have a great 2005. @ 3:51 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Thursday, December 23, 2004
BISON BASH BIRDS
Bucknell jumped into the preseason running for the PL title with their victory over the Niagara Purple Eagles last night in Lewisburg. Niagara, you will remember, beat AU in a close game early in the season.
The Bison were both good and lucky to get Niagara's leading scorer and Canadian national hero Juan Mendez off the court with foul trouble. Mendez fouled out with 6 minutes to go, due to the efforts of 35 year old (okay, he's actually 22, but that's old) Bison sophomore Chris McNaughton. McNaughton is at this point the most dominant post player in a league that hasn't had a dominant post player for a couple of years. When there has been one, a la a Patrick Doctor or Pat Whearty, the rest of the league has gotten beat up.
This is a small conference, with small players. There's plenty of great guard play, but it isn't uncommmon to have a guy that would play the 3 or 4 in a larger conference playing the 5. That means that when a good post player does come along, he can dominate at the level of an Adonal Foyle. McNaughton could end up with player of the year honors, if he can maintain consistency, which has been a problem in his first 35 or so games. Keep an eye out.
AU takes on Maryland tonight, and I'm just hoping my Eagles can break double digits in the first half. I'll be in attendance with all the Bs of the Matt B family. If AU pulls the upset, you will see me on sportscenter, running around the Comcast center court like I was freaking Jimmy V. So be sure to catch that.
Enjoy your holiday, and stay safe. Merry Christmas. @ 1:44 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Bucknell jumped into the preseason running for the PL title with their victory over the Niagara Purple Eagles last night in Lewisburg. Niagara, you will remember, beat AU in a close game early in the season.
The Bison were both good and lucky to get Niagara's leading scorer and Canadian national hero Juan Mendez off the court with foul trouble. Mendez fouled out with 6 minutes to go, due to the efforts of 35 year old (okay, he's actually 22, but that's old) Bison sophomore Chris McNaughton. McNaughton is at this point the most dominant post player in a league that hasn't had a dominant post player for a couple of years. When there has been one, a la a Patrick Doctor or Pat Whearty, the rest of the league has gotten beat up.
This is a small conference, with small players. There's plenty of great guard play, but it isn't uncommmon to have a guy that would play the 3 or 4 in a larger conference playing the 5. That means that when a good post player does come along, he can dominate at the level of an Adonal Foyle. McNaughton could end up with player of the year honors, if he can maintain consistency, which has been a problem in his first 35 or so games. Keep an eye out.
AU takes on Maryland tonight, and I'm just hoping my Eagles can break double digits in the first half. I'll be in attendance with all the Bs of the Matt B family. If AU pulls the upset, you will see me on sportscenter, running around the Comcast center court like I was freaking Jimmy V. So be sure to catch that.
Enjoy your holiday, and stay safe. Merry Christmas. @ 1:44 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
COLEMAN COPS OUT
From AUEagles.com:
American University basketball player Coleman "Coley" LeClair (Chicago, Ill./Brewster Academy) has decided to leave the men's basketball team, head coach Jeff Jones announced Tuesday.
Coleman, a 6-foot-9, 240-pound freshman, has returned home to Chicago, Ill. Coleman did not appear in any games for the Eagles this season.
"Coley just wanted to be closer to home," said Jones.
LeClair came to American from Brewster Academy, where he averaged 10.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game to go along with nearly two blocks a game. @ 10:58 AM 1 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
From AUEagles.com:
American University basketball player Coleman "Coley" LeClair (Chicago, Ill./Brewster Academy) has decided to leave the men's basketball team, head coach Jeff Jones announced Tuesday.
Coleman, a 6-foot-9, 240-pound freshman, has returned home to Chicago, Ill. Coleman did not appear in any games for the Eagles this season.
"Coley just wanted to be closer to home," said Jones.
LeClair came to American from Brewster Academy, where he averaged 10.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game to go along with nearly two blocks a game. @ 10:58 AM 1 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Monday, December 20, 2004
MASCOT MAYHEM
Does this mean I can no longer razz the Holy Cross Crusader by yelling "you are the representative of an unjust war of attrition"? Maybe I need a new taunt anyway, since that one is too long.
Here are some general guidelines for audience participation in Patriot League play. Yes, now that you mention it, I am pretty desperate for content right now.
1) "Bullshit" and "Nuts and bolts, nuts and bolts, we got screwed" are timeless classics, but you've been using those since high school and you really ought to move on. Especially since there are kids in the audience and I certainly don't want to explain bovine feces and how it relates to the poor refereeing to them. I prefer something like the "You touch too much" chant the AU kids have taken up.
2) Do your research and plan ahead. It's helpful to know a player's background, and to gently suggest that it sucks. You could taunt Chris McNaughton for his country's poor showing in the first world war, or figure out what the German word for "brick" is and add it to your vocabulary.
3) Keep it short and sweet. Anything over 4 words is too long. "Go Home Hippie" works if Kyle Roemer grows his hair back, but "Hey Kyle, you look like that guy in Phish" is too long.
4) It is obligatory to harrass any player wearing a t-shirt under their jersey. Only Patrick Ewing can do this, and anyone else attempting to do so must be related to Patrick Ewing.
5) Please, please, please lay off on the toothpaste jokes with Colgate. Not funny.
6) The word "lollygag" is humorous in all contexts. Use extensively.
7) Don't try to start the wave. That's a tip that's valid for every athletic contest other than soccer.
8) Remember that you're a fan, not a participant. Keep in perspective that most of these guys bust their asses to play college sports. With that said, calling short guys "oompa loompa" and suggesting that short guys with muscles should be wrestling is permitted. Also referring to any participant with effeminent features as "Susan" is allowed.
In keeping with the theme, here are my scientific rankings of best crowds in the PL. This is scientific because it is based on my visits to these schools combined with baseless innuendo.
1. Lafayette. They draw better than everyone, and travel well. Zoo crew of 90's not as prominent as today, but still decent.
2. Holy Cross. Cool tiny gym, hotter than hell, lots of noise when they are winning. Negative points for silly looking mascot.
3. AU. Not the best fans, but the meanest and most willing to go after guys. They started an "overrated" chant on Wooden Award Nominee Taylor Coppenrath about two minutes into the AU/Vermont contest.
4. Navy. What an arena! Too bad it makes it look half full when 3,000 people show up. Fans are courteous, Navy students are far from it. However, they are able to stay excited even when they suck.
5. Bucknell. Nice arena, no one seems to be there though.
6. Army. Any fans that still go to see this team deserve credit.
7. Lehigh. Couldn't sell out 4,000 seats for a championship game. Embarassing. Couldn't give two bits about hoops, too distracted by wrestling and football. Only hoops fans are nerdy white engineering dudes. Very scary.
8. Colgate. 300 per game at a school that has great attendance for Hockey and Football. Also, the local bar wouldn't serve me without two forms of ID so I am adjusting their position accordingly. @ 10:45 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Does this mean I can no longer razz the Holy Cross Crusader by yelling "you are the representative of an unjust war of attrition"? Maybe I need a new taunt anyway, since that one is too long.
Here are some general guidelines for audience participation in Patriot League play. Yes, now that you mention it, I am pretty desperate for content right now.
1) "Bullshit" and "Nuts and bolts, nuts and bolts, we got screwed" are timeless classics, but you've been using those since high school and you really ought to move on. Especially since there are kids in the audience and I certainly don't want to explain bovine feces and how it relates to the poor refereeing to them. I prefer something like the "You touch too much" chant the AU kids have taken up.
2) Do your research and plan ahead. It's helpful to know a player's background, and to gently suggest that it sucks. You could taunt Chris McNaughton for his country's poor showing in the first world war, or figure out what the German word for "brick" is and add it to your vocabulary.
3) Keep it short and sweet. Anything over 4 words is too long. "Go Home Hippie" works if Kyle Roemer grows his hair back, but "Hey Kyle, you look like that guy in Phish" is too long.
4) It is obligatory to harrass any player wearing a t-shirt under their jersey. Only Patrick Ewing can do this, and anyone else attempting to do so must be related to Patrick Ewing.
5) Please, please, please lay off on the toothpaste jokes with Colgate. Not funny.
6) The word "lollygag" is humorous in all contexts. Use extensively.
7) Don't try to start the wave. That's a tip that's valid for every athletic contest other than soccer.
8) Remember that you're a fan, not a participant. Keep in perspective that most of these guys bust their asses to play college sports. With that said, calling short guys "oompa loompa" and suggesting that short guys with muscles should be wrestling is permitted. Also referring to any participant with effeminent features as "Susan" is allowed.
In keeping with the theme, here are my scientific rankings of best crowds in the PL. This is scientific because it is based on my visits to these schools combined with baseless innuendo.
1. Lafayette. They draw better than everyone, and travel well. Zoo crew of 90's not as prominent as today, but still decent.
2. Holy Cross. Cool tiny gym, hotter than hell, lots of noise when they are winning. Negative points for silly looking mascot.
3. AU. Not the best fans, but the meanest and most willing to go after guys. They started an "overrated" chant on Wooden Award Nominee Taylor Coppenrath about two minutes into the AU/Vermont contest.
4. Navy. What an arena! Too bad it makes it look half full when 3,000 people show up. Fans are courteous, Navy students are far from it. However, they are able to stay excited even when they suck.
5. Bucknell. Nice arena, no one seems to be there though.
6. Army. Any fans that still go to see this team deserve credit.
7. Lehigh. Couldn't sell out 4,000 seats for a championship game. Embarassing. Couldn't give two bits about hoops, too distracted by wrestling and football. Only hoops fans are nerdy white engineering dudes. Very scary.
8. Colgate. 300 per game at a school that has great attendance for Hockey and Football. Also, the local bar wouldn't serve me without two forms of ID so I am adjusting their position accordingly. @ 10:45 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Friday, December 17, 2004
OH THE HUMANITY
What is the line on this weekend's Notre Dame-Army contest? Well, Vegas hasn't decided yet, but if it's anything less than the Irish by 25, I will bet the blog on the home team.
Bucknell and Colgate take on a pair of Ivy teams in the only significant action of this weekend. While Bucknell should be the favorite over Cornell, Lehigh is questionable against Harvard considering their dismal season thus far. Also note that LU's first league game is at AU on Jan. 8, at which point they better have their act together.
Another scheduling note: AU plays 4 of its final 5 league games on the road, with tilts at Bucknell, Colgate, LC, and LU. That's a lot of trips to Pennsylvania.
Nothing much else to report today. Enjoy your holiday break, students! @ 3:22 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
What is the line on this weekend's Notre Dame-Army contest? Well, Vegas hasn't decided yet, but if it's anything less than the Irish by 25, I will bet the blog on the home team.
Bucknell and Colgate take on a pair of Ivy teams in the only significant action of this weekend. While Bucknell should be the favorite over Cornell, Lehigh is questionable against Harvard considering their dismal season thus far. Also note that LU's first league game is at AU on Jan. 8, at which point they better have their act together.
Another scheduling note: AU plays 4 of its final 5 league games on the road, with tilts at Bucknell, Colgate, LC, and LU. That's a lot of trips to Pennsylvania.
Nothing much else to report today. Enjoy your holiday break, students! @ 3:22 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
MORE JASON JABBERIN
Jesse Epstein over at The Eagle, AU's twice weekly rag, thinks that Jason Thomas is going to take AU to the NCAAs.
I'll believe it when I see it. It seems a little early, but that's the beauty of college journalism (and blogging): no one is reading this crap so we can say whatever we want!
@ 3:13 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Jesse Epstein over at The Eagle, AU's twice weekly rag, thinks that Jason Thomas is going to take AU to the NCAAs.
J.T. could be the leader of the pack on a team that desperately needs one. While the team has six seniors, it has none that have been a more integral part of the team for four years than Thomas, and Jones needs someone to step up. The second coming of A.I. may be a year away from total domination, but this year is about J.T. And if J.T. brings his A game, there may be some more initials in the Eagles' future: NCAA!
I'll believe it when I see it. It seems a little early, but that's the beauty of college journalism (and blogging): no one is reading this crap so we can say whatever we want!
@ 3:13 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
THANK YOU JOHNNY
John Feinstein is almost certainly behind the recent appearances of Holy Cross and AU in the AP Top 25 poll. And we here at the PL blog thank him for caring. One vote for AU this week makes sense, at least, more sense than the one for for Iowa State. @ 4:56 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
John Feinstein is almost certainly behind the recent appearances of Holy Cross and AU in the AP Top 25 poll. And we here at the PL blog thank him for caring. One vote for AU this week makes sense, at least, more sense than the one for for Iowa State. @ 4:56 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
MATH EXAM
(This post has a lot of numbers and is kind of long. If you don't like numbers, or my prose, you should watch out. It also owes a lot to 82games.com, the Journal of Basketball Studies, and other stathead/basketball nerd sites. You can also look at an interactive version of these stats here)
Not a lot in the way of basketball action this week-- everyone is busy studying for their finals. Until play resumes, I've got some time to plug away at the stat sheets. The sample size is too small and the difference in schedule difficulty is too large at this point to draw any conclusions from 2004's action. However, we can take some meaningful looks at what happened last year during league play, when everyone played the same opponents the same number of times. Blogger is formatting this weird-- so scroll down please.
The above is a lot of stats about what happened during league play offensively for the 8 PL teams. Don't fall asleep yet. You should be familiar with the top line, since those are all typical stats you see in a basketball box score, and I talked about Possessions in my last post.
Floor % is how often a team scores at least one point during their offensive possessions, whether it be by jump shot, layup, three pointer, or resulting foul shot. As you can see, Army struggled mightily to score any points last season, and it shows up here. They scored at least one point on about 1/3 of their possessions, meaning they probably hit a field goal every six possessions. Not good. Holy Cross, on the other hand, did better than every other team in the league, scoring on 55% of their possessions. Notice that Lafayette's floor percentage is the lowest among the non-academy teams. More on that later.
Ignore points per possession for now.
Possessions per game is a measure of tempo on the court-- a team that prefers to run and gun will have more possessions (as will their opponent), while a team that prefers the half-court offense will typically have fewer. An example might be helpful: UNLV in the early 90s had a lot of possessions, as did their opponents, because they were an athletic team that liked to push the ball upcourt. A team that runs the Princeton offense, on the other hand, prefers to use the clock to their advantage and work a half court game, resulting in fewer possessions.
There are not a lot of outliers on possessions per game, meaning pace was about the same for most PL games. There are two exceptions, with Lafayette having about 5 more possessions than the league average in their games, while Army was typically 2 or 3 short. This indicates what we all probably already knew-- Lafayette played a full court game, trying to outrun their opponents, while Army tried to limit their (and their opponents) possessions. This makes sense for both of them, because favorites will typically beat underdogs if they have more opportunities to do so. That is, the odds are better for the underdog hitting their shots better than the favorite in the first 10 possessions than they are for the underdog hitting their shots better in the first 100.
Last season, going into league play, Lafayette looked great. They were the favorite for sure, winning 8 of their first 9 games, and going undefeated (with 3 OT victories no less) in the first half of league play. It was then good strategy for them to try to increase the number of possessions in a game, since their guys were the favorites. On the other hand, Army looked lousy the whole season, and it was better for them to try to be lucky rather than good, and slow the game down.
You might be asking yourself "Matt, so what if they had 3 extra possessions? That's nothing. A statistical anomaly. Who gave you a keyboard?" If so, you should probably stop asking yourself questions that are directed to me. However, faithful skeptic, I will explain why a difference in two or three possessions is significant.
Teams can really only control tempo during about 50% of the game (this part is not scientific, just conjecture). They are probably responsible for 40% of the tempo of the game when they have the ball, and 10% when they don't. Sure, teams can press, implement a zone defense, or anything else, but if their opponent wants to start throwing up jumpers, they're going to start throwing them up. That means that these stats are dulled down by the fact that the other team (i.e. whoever LC and Army were playing) also plays a role in the number of possessions in a game. So the numbers do mean something.
Offensive rating is a measure of how good a team is on the offensive end. It's just points per possession*100, giving us a number that is easier to read than a bunch of decimal points. You'll see that LC was by far the best at scoring points. Everyone else is relatively equal, with Lehigh above most of the pack and the academies expectedly sucking.
I threw in fouls here with the offensive stats, but that's a little confusing. The fouls number here is those committed by the team listed, not however many fouls they drew. The only notable thing here is that there isn't anything notable-- these numbers show that teams typically were called for fouls about the same amount. I'm not sure that makes sense, however, given that some teams are inherently more physical than others, and teams like Navy and Army typically need to foul more often because teams are getting better looks at the basket than them. It may reinforce the idea that referees often like to call a game "both ways", despite the fact that one team may be more at fault than another.
Above is measurements of the school's defense. Again, you should be familiar with most of the top part of stats. They actually have a few interesting things to show us when you put them together for the whole league.
Look at offensive rebounds-- Lafayette got killed! (remember, this is how many offensive rebounds their opponents had) That's another indication that the Pards were more interested in running the ball than crashing the boards. Their opponents also scored a lot more points than they did against anyone else-- not to keep shoving this down your throat, but they were clearly looking for an uptempo game, and they got it. (Or is it that opponents wanted an uptempo game? Perhaps coaches thought the Pards could be beaten in quick game, but I doubt it.)
The second row has a lot of fun stuff. Bucknell is rated as the stingiest defense (see "offense rating", which really means defense rating, but you get the idea), and for good reason. They not only allowed the fewest points per contest, but they also allowed the fewest per possession. Note that their opponents had the second most possessions per game, but scored the least. Navy, Lafayette, and Colgate are rated the worst, with Holy Cross playing their typical excellent defense. So while Army played good defense, but were unable to overcome their terrible offensive woes.
I don't remember the Bucknell defense being that great, to tell the truth. But this is the kind of thing that shows maybe I'm an idiot that needs a computer to figure out what's going on. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up this year.
Okay, now time to delve into some stats that are limited by the small sample size we have here (14 games are much tougher to analyze than the 82 in the NBA). They are also a little more complicated. But let's take a look, just for fun.
Points per possession divided by opponent points per possession is a way of balancing offensive and defensive numbers. If a team has a number over one, they scored more often than did their opponent. You'll see that while LC's defense was bad, their offense made up for it, and they come out with an overall rating of 1.05. But that was only good enough for fifth in the league. In the end, they couldn't keep up the tempo on the defensive end like they could on the offense, so they ran into trouble down the stretch (something I actually predicted and got write-- write down the date).
The other numbers are a little weird-- Bucknell's great defense makes them the best all-around team according to the stats. Holy Cross is also ranked above the eventual champions Lehigh. Why would this be?
The problem with these numbers is that they're combined to give a big picture of all 560 minutes of a season, rather than 14 segments of 40 minutes. So inconsistency doesn't mean anything in these numbers. If a team played very well one game and terrible another, it balances out to be mediocre here. If there were more games to analyze, then inconsistency would matter less.
However from these numbers we can imply that Holy Cross' inconsistency is what killed them. If they put up a consistent effort with the numbers above in every single game, then they would have been a contender in the league. Instead, they finished with a 7-7 record and a first round exit in the playoffs.
The pythagorean formula and luck numbers are just something I was fooling around with. If you care more about them, you can read about how it works here. The numbers really aren't that significant given they only go over a 14 game period.
Phew. That's a long post. Congratulations if you read through the whole thing. If anyone has any thoughts on this stuff, please let me know. I'm still trying to figure out how to apply this stuff to pre-conference play, using RPI and such, but who knows what that will result in. I'll have some time just before the new year to play around with the numbers more. Hopefully some of you will still be around to read it. @ 12:25 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
(This post has a lot of numbers and is kind of long. If you don't like numbers, or my prose, you should watch out. It also owes a lot to 82games.com, the Journal of Basketball Studies, and other stathead/basketball nerd sites. You can also look at an interactive version of these stats here)
Not a lot in the way of basketball action this week-- everyone is busy studying for their finals. Until play resumes, I've got some time to plug away at the stat sheets. The sample size is too small and the difference in schedule difficulty is too large at this point to draw any conclusions from 2004's action. However, we can take some meaningful looks at what happened last year during league play, when everyone played the same opponents the same number of times. Blogger is formatting this weird-- so scroll down please.
The above is a lot of stats about what happened during league play offensively for the 8 PL teams. Don't fall asleep yet. You should be familiar with the top line, since those are all typical stats you see in a basketball box score, and I talked about Possessions in my last post.
Floor % is how often a team scores at least one point during their offensive possessions, whether it be by jump shot, layup, three pointer, or resulting foul shot. As you can see, Army struggled mightily to score any points last season, and it shows up here. They scored at least one point on about 1/3 of their possessions, meaning they probably hit a field goal every six possessions. Not good. Holy Cross, on the other hand, did better than every other team in the league, scoring on 55% of their possessions. Notice that Lafayette's floor percentage is the lowest among the non-academy teams. More on that later.
Ignore points per possession for now.
Possessions per game is a measure of tempo on the court-- a team that prefers to run and gun will have more possessions (as will their opponent), while a team that prefers the half-court offense will typically have fewer. An example might be helpful: UNLV in the early 90s had a lot of possessions, as did their opponents, because they were an athletic team that liked to push the ball upcourt. A team that runs the Princeton offense, on the other hand, prefers to use the clock to their advantage and work a half court game, resulting in fewer possessions.
There are not a lot of outliers on possessions per game, meaning pace was about the same for most PL games. There are two exceptions, with Lafayette having about 5 more possessions than the league average in their games, while Army was typically 2 or 3 short. This indicates what we all probably already knew-- Lafayette played a full court game, trying to outrun their opponents, while Army tried to limit their (and their opponents) possessions. This makes sense for both of them, because favorites will typically beat underdogs if they have more opportunities to do so. That is, the odds are better for the underdog hitting their shots better than the favorite in the first 10 possessions than they are for the underdog hitting their shots better in the first 100.
Last season, going into league play, Lafayette looked great. They were the favorite for sure, winning 8 of their first 9 games, and going undefeated (with 3 OT victories no less) in the first half of league play. It was then good strategy for them to try to increase the number of possessions in a game, since their guys were the favorites. On the other hand, Army looked lousy the whole season, and it was better for them to try to be lucky rather than good, and slow the game down.
You might be asking yourself "Matt, so what if they had 3 extra possessions? That's nothing. A statistical anomaly. Who gave you a keyboard?" If so, you should probably stop asking yourself questions that are directed to me. However, faithful skeptic, I will explain why a difference in two or three possessions is significant.
Teams can really only control tempo during about 50% of the game (this part is not scientific, just conjecture). They are probably responsible for 40% of the tempo of the game when they have the ball, and 10% when they don't. Sure, teams can press, implement a zone defense, or anything else, but if their opponent wants to start throwing up jumpers, they're going to start throwing them up. That means that these stats are dulled down by the fact that the other team (i.e. whoever LC and Army were playing) also plays a role in the number of possessions in a game. So the numbers do mean something.
Offensive rating is a measure of how good a team is on the offensive end. It's just points per possession*100, giving us a number that is easier to read than a bunch of decimal points. You'll see that LC was by far the best at scoring points. Everyone else is relatively equal, with Lehigh above most of the pack and the academies expectedly sucking.
I threw in fouls here with the offensive stats, but that's a little confusing. The fouls number here is those committed by the team listed, not however many fouls they drew. The only notable thing here is that there isn't anything notable-- these numbers show that teams typically were called for fouls about the same amount. I'm not sure that makes sense, however, given that some teams are inherently more physical than others, and teams like Navy and Army typically need to foul more often because teams are getting better looks at the basket than them. It may reinforce the idea that referees often like to call a game "both ways", despite the fact that one team may be more at fault than another.
Above is measurements of the school's defense. Again, you should be familiar with most of the top part of stats. They actually have a few interesting things to show us when you put them together for the whole league.
Look at offensive rebounds-- Lafayette got killed! (remember, this is how many offensive rebounds their opponents had) That's another indication that the Pards were more interested in running the ball than crashing the boards. Their opponents also scored a lot more points than they did against anyone else-- not to keep shoving this down your throat, but they were clearly looking for an uptempo game, and they got it. (Or is it that opponents wanted an uptempo game? Perhaps coaches thought the Pards could be beaten in quick game, but I doubt it.)
The second row has a lot of fun stuff. Bucknell is rated as the stingiest defense (see "offense rating", which really means defense rating, but you get the idea), and for good reason. They not only allowed the fewest points per contest, but they also allowed the fewest per possession. Note that their opponents had the second most possessions per game, but scored the least. Navy, Lafayette, and Colgate are rated the worst, with Holy Cross playing their typical excellent defense. So while Army played good defense, but were unable to overcome their terrible offensive woes.
I don't remember the Bucknell defense being that great, to tell the truth. But this is the kind of thing that shows maybe I'm an idiot that needs a computer to figure out what's going on. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up this year.
Okay, now time to delve into some stats that are limited by the small sample size we have here (14 games are much tougher to analyze than the 82 in the NBA). They are also a little more complicated. But let's take a look, just for fun.
Points per possession divided by opponent points per possession is a way of balancing offensive and defensive numbers. If a team has a number over one, they scored more often than did their opponent. You'll see that while LC's defense was bad, their offense made up for it, and they come out with an overall rating of 1.05. But that was only good enough for fifth in the league. In the end, they couldn't keep up the tempo on the defensive end like they could on the offense, so they ran into trouble down the stretch (something I actually predicted and got write-- write down the date).
The other numbers are a little weird-- Bucknell's great defense makes them the best all-around team according to the stats. Holy Cross is also ranked above the eventual champions Lehigh. Why would this be?
The problem with these numbers is that they're combined to give a big picture of all 560 minutes of a season, rather than 14 segments of 40 minutes. So inconsistency doesn't mean anything in these numbers. If a team played very well one game and terrible another, it balances out to be mediocre here. If there were more games to analyze, then inconsistency would matter less.
However from these numbers we can imply that Holy Cross' inconsistency is what killed them. If they put up a consistent effort with the numbers above in every single game, then they would have been a contender in the league. Instead, they finished with a 7-7 record and a first round exit in the playoffs.
The pythagorean formula and luck numbers are just something I was fooling around with. If you care more about them, you can read about how it works here. The numbers really aren't that significant given they only go over a 14 game period.
Phew. That's a long post. Congratulations if you read through the whole thing. If anyone has any thoughts on this stuff, please let me know. I'm still trying to figure out how to apply this stuff to pre-conference play, using RPI and such, but who knows what that will result in. I'll have some time just before the new year to play around with the numbers more. Hopefully some of you will still be around to read it. @ 12:25 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Sunday, December 12, 2004
THOMAS THROWS DOWN
Here's the line for Jason Thomas' first four games:
@ VCU 3-6, 0-3 from 3pt, 6 points, 2 Rebounds, 30 Min
@ Niagara 0-4, 0-2 from 3pt, 0 points, 4 rebounds, 26 Min
Wagner 2-5, 0-3 from 3pt, 8 points, 6 rebounds, 27 Min
St. Francis 3-6, (2-3 from 3pt), 10 points, 5 rebounds, 36 Min
That puts him at a total of 8-21, 2-11 from 3pt range for those games, with 24 points. Now look at the next three games:
Vermont 9-14, 3-7 from 3pt, 23 points, 11 rebounds, 39 min
@Towson 8-9, 5-5 from 3pt, 26 points, 12 rebounds, 40 min
Ohio 9-12, 5-6 from 3pt, 26 points, 4 rebounds, 38 min
Combined, 26-35, 13-18 from 3pt, 75 points, 27 rebounds in three games.
The former stats were much more indicative of the role Thomas has played for the previous three seasons-- contributing on the boards, and playing good defense. Then, all of a sudden, he's AU's #1 offensive threat. Which leads us to ask -- is Jason Thomas on the cream and the clear? Where did this sudden sharpshooting come from? Right now, he is the hottest shooter in the league by far, maybe in all of Division I basketball. As he kept hitting shot after shot, my hoops buddies and I kept looking at each other with confused looks-- Who is this guy?
PATRIOT PATHOS
Okay, enough about Jason Thomas. Hopefully (for AU fans) his hot streak won't disappear with the lapse in play during finals week. This week was ugly for the Patriot League, with a number of bad losses.
Scroll down to see my whining about Monday's games-- but things didn't get much better. While Holy Cross fell short in a good effort against a sleeping Boston College squad, Lafayette lost to Marist and Colgate lost to Harvard. This puts Lafayette at 1-6 and Colgate at 1-5.
My buddy Chris over at Hoop Time suggests that Lafayette's close losses put them in prime position to be a spoiler in the league, but I think they're just lousy. Marist is not a quality loss. Holy Cross and Vermont, two teams that can be a measuring stick in this situation, both crushed the Foxes by 20+ points. LC graduated a lot of seniors (and points with them) last year. To be honest, I don't see the Leopards as the favorite in a game until they play Navy on January 8. Cal State Northridge is 0-5, but my guess is they pick up their first win in Easton Monday.
I've got some more stuff on stats that I put together using last year's conference play. Check back tonight or tomorrow. @ 1:20 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Here's the line for Jason Thomas' first four games:
@ VCU 3-6, 0-3 from 3pt, 6 points, 2 Rebounds, 30 Min
@ Niagara 0-4, 0-2 from 3pt, 0 points, 4 rebounds, 26 Min
Wagner 2-5, 0-3 from 3pt, 8 points, 6 rebounds, 27 Min
St. Francis 3-6, (2-3 from 3pt), 10 points, 5 rebounds, 36 Min
That puts him at a total of 8-21, 2-11 from 3pt range for those games, with 24 points. Now look at the next three games:
Vermont 9-14, 3-7 from 3pt, 23 points, 11 rebounds, 39 min
@Towson 8-9, 5-5 from 3pt, 26 points, 12 rebounds, 40 min
Ohio 9-12, 5-6 from 3pt, 26 points, 4 rebounds, 38 min
Combined, 26-35, 13-18 from 3pt, 75 points, 27 rebounds in three games.
The former stats were much more indicative of the role Thomas has played for the previous three seasons-- contributing on the boards, and playing good defense. Then, all of a sudden, he's AU's #1 offensive threat. Which leads us to ask -- is Jason Thomas on the cream and the clear? Where did this sudden sharpshooting come from? Right now, he is the hottest shooter in the league by far, maybe in all of Division I basketball. As he kept hitting shot after shot, my hoops buddies and I kept looking at each other with confused looks-- Who is this guy?
PATRIOT PATHOS
Okay, enough about Jason Thomas. Hopefully (for AU fans) his hot streak won't disappear with the lapse in play during finals week. This week was ugly for the Patriot League, with a number of bad losses.
Scroll down to see my whining about Monday's games-- but things didn't get much better. While Holy Cross fell short in a good effort against a sleeping Boston College squad, Lafayette lost to Marist and Colgate lost to Harvard. This puts Lafayette at 1-6 and Colgate at 1-5.
My buddy Chris over at Hoop Time suggests that Lafayette's close losses put them in prime position to be a spoiler in the league, but I think they're just lousy. Marist is not a quality loss. Holy Cross and Vermont, two teams that can be a measuring stick in this situation, both crushed the Foxes by 20+ points. LC graduated a lot of seniors (and points with them) last year. To be honest, I don't see the Leopards as the favorite in a game until they play Navy on January 8. Cal State Northridge is 0-5, but my guess is they pick up their first win in Easton Monday.
I've got some more stuff on stats that I put together using last year's conference play. Check back tonight or tomorrow. @ 1:20 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Thursday, December 09, 2004
TIME TO GET A LITTLE BIT NERDY
Those who can, do. Those who can't, analyze.
That's pretty much how it works in sports writing. Guys like me can't hit a jumper, but we can use a word processor. Some of us can even use a calculator. This is my first attempt at the latter.
I'll let you in on a secret: I'm actually a baseball fan, not a basketball fan. I could give two snaps about what the Nets or Warriors do, but I can name the starting rotation for most MLB teams. In baseball, there is a very well publicized movement to use statistical analysis in determining the value of individual players and teams. There are also a few pioneers out there trying to do the same thing with basketball.
The above is a chart listing some stats for all the teams in the league thus far (it does not include AU's victory over Towson yesterday). All of these should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're not very far into the season, and numbers are going to change as we go along.
The key numbers for us are possesions, possessions per game, and points per possession (despite my misspelling them). This uses a formula from Ken Pomeroy to determine what a "possession" is. I won't get too into it here, but you can probably figure out for yourself what a possession means.
The idea is that you can determine how well a team is doing at scoring points based on how many they score per possession, more so than you can with points per game. A quick team might score a lot of points, but they also might create a tempo that allows their opponents to score a lot of points too. If you limit your possessions, you also limit the opponents. The real goal of basketball is not to score a certain number of points. The goal is to get more possessions, and score more during those possessions than your opponent. You can win 36-30 or 114-98, a win is still a win.
Some thoughts on what the numbers show us:
-Is Navy is playing hurry-up basketball? This is a team that struggled to score points last year. They have the most possessions per game so far, with 79 opportunities a game to put the ball in the bucket. That number will probably drop as they stop playing DIII teams, but it's impressive right now. Also notice that they score the least often in the PL, with only .88 points per possession.
-Army, the other team that couldn't buy a jumpshot for much of last year, seems to be doing the right thing-- slowing down the game with few possessions per game, and scoring when they have the opportunity. They average fourth in the league with points per possession. Too bad it hasn't translated into wins. We'll see if they can keep it up with better competition.
-Bucknell seems to be keeping things slow as well, a testiment to the abilities of Chris McNaughton in the post. Bucknell is a young and athletic team that was mostly guard centered last year, but the development of McNaughton as a legitimate offensive threat allows them to play a half court game.
-Lehigh, Lafayette, and Holy Cross have very low totals in points/possession. AU has a very high one.
Who knows what that this stuff means this early on, but it's fun to think about. I have a couple of ideas on how to weigh this stuff based on who teams are playing, but that will have to wait for another day. If anyone has any comments on this sort of thing, let me know. It's a work in progress, as is statistical basketball analysis in general. Also, if anyone can get me stats from these games in a format that is easier than me just typing them into excel, I'll write the school of your choice a check with my compliments. @ 2:23 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Those who can, do. Those who can't, analyze.
That's pretty much how it works in sports writing. Guys like me can't hit a jumper, but we can use a word processor. Some of us can even use a calculator. This is my first attempt at the latter.
I'll let you in on a secret: I'm actually a baseball fan, not a basketball fan. I could give two snaps about what the Nets or Warriors do, but I can name the starting rotation for most MLB teams. In baseball, there is a very well publicized movement to use statistical analysis in determining the value of individual players and teams. There are also a few pioneers out there trying to do the same thing with basketball.
The above is a chart listing some stats for all the teams in the league thus far (it does not include AU's victory over Towson yesterday). All of these should be taken with a grain of salt, given that we're not very far into the season, and numbers are going to change as we go along.
The key numbers for us are possesions, possessions per game, and points per possession (despite my misspelling them). This uses a formula from Ken Pomeroy to determine what a "possession" is. I won't get too into it here, but you can probably figure out for yourself what a possession means.
The idea is that you can determine how well a team is doing at scoring points based on how many they score per possession, more so than you can with points per game. A quick team might score a lot of points, but they also might create a tempo that allows their opponents to score a lot of points too. If you limit your possessions, you also limit the opponents. The real goal of basketball is not to score a certain number of points. The goal is to get more possessions, and score more during those possessions than your opponent. You can win 36-30 or 114-98, a win is still a win.
Some thoughts on what the numbers show us:
-Is Navy is playing hurry-up basketball? This is a team that struggled to score points last year. They have the most possessions per game so far, with 79 opportunities a game to put the ball in the bucket. That number will probably drop as they stop playing DIII teams, but it's impressive right now. Also notice that they score the least often in the PL, with only .88 points per possession.
-Army, the other team that couldn't buy a jumpshot for much of last year, seems to be doing the right thing-- slowing down the game with few possessions per game, and scoring when they have the opportunity. They average fourth in the league with points per possession. Too bad it hasn't translated into wins. We'll see if they can keep it up with better competition.
-Bucknell seems to be keeping things slow as well, a testiment to the abilities of Chris McNaughton in the post. Bucknell is a young and athletic team that was mostly guard centered last year, but the development of McNaughton as a legitimate offensive threat allows them to play a half court game.
-Lehigh, Lafayette, and Holy Cross have very low totals in points/possession. AU has a very high one.
Who knows what that this stuff means this early on, but it's fun to think about. I have a couple of ideas on how to weigh this stuff based on who teams are playing, but that will have to wait for another day. If anyone has any comments on this sort of thing, let me know. It's a work in progress, as is statistical basketball analysis in general. Also, if anyone can get me stats from these games in a format that is easier than me just typing them into excel, I'll write the school of your choice a check with my compliments. @ 2:23 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
Monday Mediocrity
A lousy day all around for the league. Defending champ Lehigh lost to Columbia in front of a lousy 512 fans. Columbia is a doormat team in the Ivy league, and was ranked 325 out of 326 in 2002. They're a little better now, but they're not a team that is going to be .500 in conference play, and it looks like Lehigh might not be either.
This is after LU lost to less than good Stony Brook on Saturday. It's almost enough to make my bitching about Army and Navy playing poorly against a lousy schedule (and bringing the league RPI down with them) look misplaced.
Oh wait, they both lost too.
Lafayette did their part in contributing to this suckfest, dropping a contest to Cornell, a team I (and that cursed Blue Ribbon Yearbook) may have overrated a tiny bit. Cornell plays 6 of the 8 Patriot League teams in OOC play this year, with only AU and Navy missing out on the fun.
You may have noticed this writer having large aspirations for the standing of the league-- sometimes it might sound like I think the league should be a super-Ivy -- all the academics, none of the sissy "non-scholarship" stuff. But when a night last like night happens.. I don't feel too optimistic.
Look at it this way: At this point, it's unlikely that the team which wins the league tournament will go to the NCAA tournament with anything more than a 16 seed.
Holy Cross got a win they needed over Fordham, a school that is a lot like the girl that leaves Kansas for Hollywood with big dreams, and ends up selling Star Maps and working at In-N-Out burger. Hooptime 3.0 does a good job of showing how much things have gotten lousy for Fordham since they left the league. Take note, antsy HC fans. @ 9:30 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
A lousy day all around for the league. Defending champ Lehigh lost to Columbia in front of a lousy 512 fans. Columbia is a doormat team in the Ivy league, and was ranked 325 out of 326 in 2002. They're a little better now, but they're not a team that is going to be .500 in conference play, and it looks like Lehigh might not be either.
This is after LU lost to less than good Stony Brook on Saturday. It's almost enough to make my bitching about Army and Navy playing poorly against a lousy schedule (and bringing the league RPI down with them) look misplaced.
Oh wait, they both lost too.
Lafayette did their part in contributing to this suckfest, dropping a contest to Cornell, a team I (and that cursed Blue Ribbon Yearbook) may have overrated a tiny bit. Cornell plays 6 of the 8 Patriot League teams in OOC play this year, with only AU and Navy missing out on the fun.
You may have noticed this writer having large aspirations for the standing of the league-- sometimes it might sound like I think the league should be a super-Ivy -- all the academics, none of the sissy "non-scholarship" stuff. But when a night last like night happens.. I don't feel too optimistic.
Look at it this way: At this point, it's unlikely that the team which wins the league tournament will go to the NCAA tournament with anything more than a 16 seed.
Holy Cross got a win they needed over Fordham, a school that is a lot like the girl that leaves Kansas for Hollywood with big dreams, and ends up selling Star Maps and working at In-N-Out burger. Hooptime 3.0 does a good job of showing how much things have gotten lousy for Fordham since they left the league. Take note, antsy HC fans. @ 9:30 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Monday, December 06, 2004
Patriot League Photo Blowout 2004
Here's a bunch of photos I stole from the AP wire, mostly of PL teams getting beat up. Enjoy!
@ 2:17 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Here's a bunch of photos I stole from the AP wire, mostly of PL teams getting beat up. Enjoy!
@ 2:17 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Saturday, December 04, 2004
Lehigh Lousy, Eagles Excellent, Lee Lets Loose
So HC and LC got blown out by major conference foes. No surprise there. CU is playing close with Syracuse as I write this, but my guess is that doesn't last. Not much more to say there.
The big victory of the day, even if you're biased like me, was AU knocking off #7 ranked (well, sort of) Vermont. You can read an emphatic recap by the AU SID here.
You may recall this author talking about Jason Thomas playing too much after the AU victory over St. Francis. (scroll down and see for yourself) But now, it looks like I'm an idiot, and Thomas is the man. My apologies to him. He played the game of his life, more or less running things on the offensive end and rebounding like he was named after a green Muppet.
This puts AU in good shape, with the best non-conference victory in the league thus far. If they can beat low-level MAC team Ohio next Saturday, they will be looking real good.
In less encouraging news, Lehigh was the second Patriot League team to lose to Stony Brook. Stony Brook was 10-20 last year, and isn't supposed to be much better this year. Much vaunted newcomer Joe Knight was 1-7 from outside the arch. This isn't too much of an upset, but if Lehigh is a team that's supposed to be in the running for the conference championship, this isn't a game they should lose.
Bucknell won in a thriller in New Haven, as Charles Lee exploded for 22 points and 18 (18!) rebounds. More about Lee tomorrow. I'm off to celebrate the AU victory. @ 8:18 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
So HC and LC got blown out by major conference foes. No surprise there. CU is playing close with Syracuse as I write this, but my guess is that doesn't last. Not much more to say there.
The big victory of the day, even if you're biased like me, was AU knocking off #7 ranked (well, sort of) Vermont. You can read an emphatic recap by the AU SID here.
You may recall this author talking about Jason Thomas playing too much after the AU victory over St. Francis. (scroll down and see for yourself) But now, it looks like I'm an idiot, and Thomas is the man. My apologies to him. He played the game of his life, more or less running things on the offensive end and rebounding like he was named after a green Muppet.
This puts AU in good shape, with the best non-conference victory in the league thus far. If they can beat low-level MAC team Ohio next Saturday, they will be looking real good.
In less encouraging news, Lehigh was the second Patriot League team to lose to Stony Brook. Stony Brook was 10-20 last year, and isn't supposed to be much better this year. Much vaunted newcomer Joe Knight was 1-7 from outside the arch. This isn't too much of an upset, but if Lehigh is a team that's supposed to be in the running for the conference championship, this isn't a game they should lose.
Bucknell won in a thriller in New Haven, as Charles Lee exploded for 22 points and 18 (18!) rebounds. More about Lee tomorrow. I'm off to celebrate the AU victory. @ 8:18 PM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Thursday, December 02, 2004
Saturday Bloody Saturday
Tough week so far for PL teams (4-6 not including Army's trouncing of the NY School of Art and Design or whatever it was). But it's going to get worse.
While Lehigh continues its efforts to return to the Play In Game should they win the PL again (their schedule is littered with crappy teams like Harvard, Dartmouth, Wagner, Columbia and Towson), the other 7 teams play teams on Saturday that will can and probably will beat them.
Bucknell takes on Yale, a team that is a sleeper in the Ivy this year. This game is the one real tossup on Saturday-- a Bucknell win on the road wouldn't be shocking.
Lafayette travels to the land of tobacco and river folk, taking on Rick Pitino's Louisville squad. Can you imagine being a team in Conference USA, especially after next season when a number of teams leave? I am completely uninterested in anything that happens in that league. Tulane-SLU and ECU-TCU are supposed to get me excited? Sheesh. Anyway, the Leopards are going to get beat up. It's not going to be pretty.
AU hosts Vermont, home of Taylor Coppenrath, future NBA star and current folk hero in his home state. Coppenrath, you will remember, is the gentleman who dropped 43 on Maine last year to get his team to the NCAAs. Oh, and he had a broken wrist at the time. I watched the game, and I fear for the AU and HC frontcourt players, who will have to deal with this behemoth. Vermont is beatable-- but not if Coppenrath isn't sick or hurt.
Holy Cross travels to the frozen tundra of Minnesota, where weather.com predicts a pleasant 41 degree high on Saturday. Minnesota, you'll remember, was only notable for the presence of Kris Humphries, who led the Big Ten in scoring and rebounds. Minnesota was lousy otherwise, going 12-18 and 3-13 in conference play. Humphries has moved on to the Utah Jazz, but Minnesota is still not that good for a Big Ten team. However, they should still beat the Cross, given their size and home court advantage.
Colgate heads to Syracuse. You know what happens when Colgate goes to Syracuse. This will be either the 39th or 40th time in a row Colgate gets beat. It doens't seem fair.
Army goes to St. Francis NY, but since they're Army, they're the underdog regardless when they are on the road.
Rounding out the losses, Navy travels to Ohio. While Navy did get a legitimate DI win yesterday, they won't be beating any MAC teams for a while.
So, if the league goes 2-5 this week, someone will have to pull a big upset.
Ivy Ownage
As far as this week's action so far, there really haven't been any surprises, save for Navy's victory. Penn has beaten PL teams 19 times in a row, a ridiculous amount. And Princeton is just really good at playing the game their way, slowing down offenses, and keeping scores under 60 (they held Syracuse to 56).
At some point, the Patriot League as a whole is going to be better than the Ivy League. In fact, most of the league is probably better than 6 of those 8 squads. The key to getting the league better than the Ivies is getting Army and Navy to a respectable level. They drop everyone else's RPI in the league by a significant margin. Lehigh could have been a 15 or 16 seed easily last year, if only they hadn't played Army and Navy five different times.
If those two schools increase their level of play, it will elevate the level of play for everyone else in the league. In the meantime, PL teams are still going to lose to the Princeton and Penns of the world.
Don't get me wrong: I think Army and Navy are great for the league. They provide a tradition and fan base that none of the other schools can. They're also the most prestigious schools in the league. If you graduate from either of those schools, you are going to have a good job whenever you want. But until they improve their basketball programs they are going to hurt the league as a whole. And it is possible to have a good program at a service academy-- look at Air Force hoops and football, Navy baseball and football, and Army.. well I don't know about Army.
It might not be fair to tie the two losses this week to the Ivies to Navy and Army's struggles-- I mean, they weren't even in the gym. But in looking at the greater scheme of things improvement by the academies will be a big step. @ 10:01 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
Tough week so far for PL teams (4-6 not including Army's trouncing of the NY School of Art and Design or whatever it was). But it's going to get worse.
While Lehigh continues its efforts to return to the Play In Game should they win the PL again (their schedule is littered with crappy teams like Harvard, Dartmouth, Wagner, Columbia and Towson), the other 7 teams play teams on Saturday that will can and probably will beat them.
Bucknell takes on Yale, a team that is a sleeper in the Ivy this year. This game is the one real tossup on Saturday-- a Bucknell win on the road wouldn't be shocking.
Lafayette travels to the land of tobacco and river folk, taking on Rick Pitino's Louisville squad. Can you imagine being a team in Conference USA, especially after next season when a number of teams leave? I am completely uninterested in anything that happens in that league. Tulane-SLU and ECU-TCU are supposed to get me excited? Sheesh. Anyway, the Leopards are going to get beat up. It's not going to be pretty.
AU hosts Vermont, home of Taylor Coppenrath, future NBA star and current folk hero in his home state. Coppenrath, you will remember, is the gentleman who dropped 43 on Maine last year to get his team to the NCAAs. Oh, and he had a broken wrist at the time. I watched the game, and I fear for the AU and HC frontcourt players, who will have to deal with this behemoth. Vermont is beatable-- but not if Coppenrath isn't sick or hurt.
Holy Cross travels to the frozen tundra of Minnesota, where weather.com predicts a pleasant 41 degree high on Saturday. Minnesota, you'll remember, was only notable for the presence of Kris Humphries, who led the Big Ten in scoring and rebounds. Minnesota was lousy otherwise, going 12-18 and 3-13 in conference play. Humphries has moved on to the Utah Jazz, but Minnesota is still not that good for a Big Ten team. However, they should still beat the Cross, given their size and home court advantage.
Colgate heads to Syracuse. You know what happens when Colgate goes to Syracuse. This will be either the 39th or 40th time in a row Colgate gets beat. It doens't seem fair.
Army goes to St. Francis NY, but since they're Army, they're the underdog regardless when they are on the road.
Rounding out the losses, Navy travels to Ohio. While Navy did get a legitimate DI win yesterday, they won't be beating any MAC teams for a while.
So, if the league goes 2-5 this week, someone will have to pull a big upset.
Ivy Ownage
As far as this week's action so far, there really haven't been any surprises, save for Navy's victory. Penn has beaten PL teams 19 times in a row, a ridiculous amount. And Princeton is just really good at playing the game their way, slowing down offenses, and keeping scores under 60 (they held Syracuse to 56).
At some point, the Patriot League as a whole is going to be better than the Ivy League. In fact, most of the league is probably better than 6 of those 8 squads. The key to getting the league better than the Ivies is getting Army and Navy to a respectable level. They drop everyone else's RPI in the league by a significant margin. Lehigh could have been a 15 or 16 seed easily last year, if only they hadn't played Army and Navy five different times.
If those two schools increase their level of play, it will elevate the level of play for everyone else in the league. In the meantime, PL teams are still going to lose to the Princeton and Penns of the world.
Don't get me wrong: I think Army and Navy are great for the league. They provide a tradition and fan base that none of the other schools can. They're also the most prestigious schools in the league. If you graduate from either of those schools, you are going to have a good job whenever you want. But until they improve their basketball programs they are going to hurt the league as a whole. And it is possible to have a good program at a service academy-- look at Air Force hoops and football, Navy baseball and football, and Army.. well I don't know about Army.
It might not be fair to tie the two losses this week to the Ivies to Navy and Army's struggles-- I mean, they weren't even in the gym. But in looking at the greater scheme of things improvement by the academies will be a big step. @ 10:01 AM 0 HC Alums are angry about this post | Bitch about it on the PL hoops messageboard
